Will Kyle Busch beat Ty Gibbs in the racing matchup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$215K
13 contracts
Top contract
4¢
$108K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 29% of their title tokens — “Will Kyle Larson” vs “Will Kyle Busch finish in the top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kyle Larson
Will Kyle Larson be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-KYLA
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-KLAR
Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARTOP10-WR4PBL26-KYLA
Will Kyle Larson finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-KYLA
Will Kyle Larson record the fastest lap in the main race at the NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARFASTLAP-WR4PBL26-KYLA
Cluster 2
Will Kyle Busch finish in the top
Cluster 3
Will Ty Gibbs be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner
Will Ty Gibbs be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Ty Gibbs
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-TYGI
Cluster 4
Will Jordan Spieth beat Russell Henley in the Cadillac Championship
Cluster 5
Will Scottie Scheffler beat Cameron Young in the Cadillac Championship
Cluster 6
Will Cameron Young beat Scottie Scheffler in the Cadillac Championship
Cluster 7
Will Chris Gotterup beat Collin Morikawa in the Cadillac Championship
Cluster 8
What will the announcers say during Brewers vs Cardinals Professional Baseball Game
What moved the line
- May 3Busch Stadium↓52pp63→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Kyle Larson↑36pp14→50¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Kyle Larson↓34pp50→16¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chris Gotterup beats Collin Morikawa↑32pp48→80¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Scottie Scheffler beats Cameron Young↓29pp69→40¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 10 min ago.