Will Kyle Busch beat Ty Gibbs in the racing matchup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$773
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
145 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Kyle Larson be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Kyle Larson
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-KLAR
Analysis
This contract reflects the odds that Kyle Busch will defeat Ty Gibbs in a direct racing competition, currently priced at 6%, suggesting Gibbs is heavily favored. The low probability for Busch likely reflects Gibbs' recent performance trajectory and age advantage in modern NASCAR competition. The matchup outcome depends on specific race conditions, vehicle setup, pit crew execution, and track position at critical moments. Resolution would occur following the scheduled race event, with results determined by official NASCAR finishing positions. Key variables include recent head-to-head performance data, track characteristics favoring either driver's style, and current vehicle competitiveness levels entering the race.
- ›Recent performance records and qualifying speeds between Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs in 2026 NASCAR events
- ›Track layout and conditions for the specific race venue—whether characteristics historically favor either driver's racing style
- ›Vehicle setup and equipment quality for each driver's team, including engine performance and chassis adjustments
- ›Starting positions and pit strategy execution on race day, which significantly influence outcome probability regardless of driver talent
- ›Official NASCAR finishing position and margin of victory in the scheduled matchup event
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (10% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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