Will Giovanni Ruggiero be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
122 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Christian Eckes be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Christian Eckes be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Christian Eckes
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-CECK
Cluster 2
Will Corey Heim be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Corey Heim be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Corey Heim
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-CHEI
Cluster 3
Will Chandler Smith be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Chandler Smith be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Chandler Smith
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-CSMI
Cluster 4
Will Daniel Hemric be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Daniel Hemric be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Daniel Hemric
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-DHEM
Analysis
Giovanni Ruggiero's 11% probability reflects the market's assessment that he is an unlikely winner of the NASCAR Truck Series championship in 2026. Championship odds in NASCAR are typically distributed across numerous competitors, with favorites receiving significantly higher probabilities. Ruggiero's current positioning suggests he faces stiff competition and would need to demonstrate consistent performance improvements throughout the season to accumulate enough points for a title. The main factors affecting his probability are his historical performance record in the series, consistency in recent races, and how he stacks up against the leading contenders. As the season progresses, his actual results in upcoming races will be the primary driver of probability changes—strong finishes would increase his odds, while poor performances would likely decrease them further. The championship will be determined by accumulated points over the full season schedule.
- ›Ruggiero's finishing positions and points accumulation through the remainder of the 2026 season relative to other championship contenders
- ›Historical consistency and race results that establish whether he typically competes in top-tier positions or mid-field performance bands
- ›Strength of the competitive field and whether other drivers show dominating performances that would mathematically reduce his championship chances
- ›Performance in upcoming high-stakes races where significant points opportunities exist
- ›Any changes to vehicle performance, crew personnel, or sponsorship stability that could affect his competitive standing
What moved the line
- Jul 4Corey Heim↑8pp4→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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