Will Giovanni Ruggiero be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$217
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
48 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kaden Honeycutt be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Kaden Honeycutt be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Kaden Honeycutt
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-KHON
Cluster 2
Will Layne Riggs be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Layne Riggs be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Layne Riggs
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-LRIG
Cluster 3
Will Chandler Smith be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Chandler Smith be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Chandler Smith
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-CSMI
Cluster 4
Will Brenden Queen be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion
Will Brenden Queen be the NASCAR Truck Series Champion?: Brenden Queen
KXNASCARTRUCKSERIES-NTS26-BQUE
Analysis
Giovanni Ruggiero carries a 12% probability of winning the 2026 NASCAR Truck Series Championship, reflecting his current standing among championship contenders. This probability is influenced by his performance metrics relative to leading competitors like Layne Riggs (41%), who currently holds the strongest odds. Ruggiero's odds could shift based on his race results, points accumulation as the season progresses, and whether he maintains consistency in top finishes. The championship will ultimately be decided by the final points standings at season's end, with upcoming races serving as key indicators of whether Ruggiero can narrow the gap to frontrunners or falls further behind. Market pricing suggests investors view him as a mid-tier contender with a meaningful but not primary chance at the title.
- ›Ruggiero's current point position relative to Riggs and other top contenders in the championship standings
- ›Consistency of his top-10 and top-5 finish rates compared to leading competitors over recent races
- ›Equipment and crew quality relative to front-running teams like those supporting Riggs
- ›Historical performance data showing his win probability in head-to-head competitive scenarios
- ›Remaining races on the schedule and opportunities for strategic points gains or losses
What moved the line
- Sep 18Kaden Honeycutt↑10pp21→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Layne Riggs↓7pp38→31¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Kaden Honeycutt↑5pp16→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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