Will there be exactly the same amount of ACC and Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft
Leader sits at 91% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Big 12
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
ACC
Spread
88pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$960
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
16 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there
Will there be more ACC players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft?: ACC
KXNBADRAFTCOMP-26ACCBIG12-ACC
Will there be more Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft?: Big 12
KXNBADRAFTCOMP-26ACCBIG12-B12
Will there be exactly the same amount of ACC and Big 12 players selected in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft?: Tie
KXNBADRAFTCOMP-26ACCBIG12-TIE
Analysis
This probability estimates whether the 2026 NBA Draft's first round will feature an equal number of players from the ACC and Big 12 conferences. The market currently prices an exact tie at 4 cents, indicating traders view such parity as highly unlikely. The distribution of elite talent between these conferences—measured by projected draft position and player development—shapes expectations. The Big 12 is favored at 89 cents, suggesting market participants expect more Big 12 first-round selections than ACC picks. Resolution occurs when the NBA completes the 2026 Draft's first round, definitively counting selections by conference affiliation. Changes to this probability would reflect updated player evaluations, injury developments, or shifts in which underclassmen declare for the draft versus return to school.
- ›Current roster composition and projected draft stock of ACC and Big 12 players eligible for 2026, including who has declared versus remaining eligible
- ›Historical conference representation ratios in first rounds—whether ACC or Big 12 typically produces more lottery and early-round talent
- ›Transfer portal activity between now and draft declarations that could shift player affiliations between conferences
- ›Injury status or performance changes of borderline first-round prospects within each conference
- ›Draft date and official declaration deadline—when eligibility rules lock in the final pool of participants
What moved the line
- Jun 23ACC↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Big 12↑3pp86→89¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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