Will Detroit be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 15, 2027
269 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 2
Will Toronto be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 3
Will Cleveland be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 4
Will Philadelphia be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 5
Will New York be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 6
Will Boston be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 7
Will Detroit be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Cluster 8
Will Orlando be the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Analysis
This probability reflects market assessment of Detroit's odds to finish with the best regular-season record in the Eastern Conference at season's end in April 2027. The 14% probability sits above Boston (11%) but well below Atlanta (30%), suggesting traders see Detroit as a contender but not a favorite. Detroit's probability would likely shift based on roster moves during the 2026 offseason (trades, free agency signings) and early season performance in the 2026-27 campaign starting October 2026. The first 20-30 games of the regular season will be the primary catalyst reshaping these odds, as actual performance data replaces preseason projections and clarifies which teams have genuine championship contention depth.
- ›Current Eastern Conference favorites (Atlanta at 30%) trade at more than double Detroit's probability, indicating skepticism about Detroit's path to the #1 seed relative to established contenders
- ›Detroit's probability relative to Boston (11%) and New York (5%) depends heavily on offseason roster construction and whether the team addresses specific positional needs
- ›Early season win-loss record through November-December 2026 will be the primary driver of probability shifts, with injuries to key players representing a major uncertainty factor
- ›The remaining 55% of probability distributed across all other Eastern Conference teams reflects uncertainty about whether teams currently unpriced might emerge as stronger contenders
- ›Market pricing suggests <15% of traders view Detroit as the likely #1 seed, though this could change substantially based on preseason expectations and opening roster additions
What moved the line
- Sep 12Toronto↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 1d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 6d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 6d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 8d
- Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.