Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.39% by Jan 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This market reflects a 96% probability that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield will close at or above 5.29% on January 1, 2027—roughly 103 days away. The tight clustering of contract prices (83¢ to 96¢) indicates strong consensus that yields will remain elevated, though meaningful disagreement persists on whether they'll exceed 5.35%. The probability is primarily driven by current yield levels and expectations around Federal Reserve monetary policy through year-end. The primary uncertainty revolves around whether inflation data, employment reports, and Fed communications between now and December will sustain current rate levels or spark a decline. No single scheduled event determines this outcome; rather, cumulative economic data releases and Fed communications through December will influence whether the 30Y yield drifts lower or stabilizes above 5.29%.

• ›The 30Y Treasury yield closed above 5.29% on multiple recent trading days, making a sustained breakout below that level the primary path to market resolution against the 96% pricing
• ›The next 100 days will include at least three CPI reports, multiple jobs reports, and Fed communications; a significant inflation surprise downward or recession signal could pressure yields lower
• ›The implied probability gradient shows 83% conviction at 5.35% but 96% at 5.29%, indicating that market participants view the 5.29–5.35% range as the critical zone where uncertainty concentrates
• ›Current 30Y yield levels reflect Fed policy expectations; any material shift in terminal rate guidance or inflation outlook could shift the probability outside the current range
• ›Liquidity in the 5.35%+ contract ($200 daily volume) is significantly higher than runner-up contracts, suggesting active disagreement among traders on whether yields will push into the upper bound

What moved the line

• Sep 195.35% or above↓39pp85→46¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 195.41% or above↓36pp69→33¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 195.42% or above↓33pp66→33¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 195.39% or above↓32pp75→43¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 195.4% or above↓27pp72→45¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds