Will Detroit win 12+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 53% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
53%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
61 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Detroit win
Will Detroit win 8+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 8+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-8
Will Detroit win 11+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 11+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-11
Will Detroit win 9+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 9+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-9
Will Detroit win 10+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 10+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-10
Will Detroit win 12+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 12+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-12
Will Detroit win 13+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 13+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-13
Will Detroit win 7+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 7+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26DET-7
Cluster 2
Will San Antonio win
Will San Antonio win 10+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 10+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-10
Will San Antonio win 11+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 11+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-11
Will San Antonio win 12+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 12+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-12
Will San Antonio win 7+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 7+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-7
Will San Antonio win 9+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 9+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-9
Will San Antonio win 15+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 15+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26SAS-15
Cluster 3
Will New York win
Will New York win 7+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 7+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-7
Will New York win 12+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 12+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-12
Will New York win 13+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 13+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-13
Will New York win 11+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 11+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26NYK-11
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma City win
Will Oklahoma City win 15+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 15+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26OKC-15
Will Oklahoma City win 11+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 11+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26OKC-11
Will Oklahoma City win 8+ games in the 2026 Pro Basketball Playoffs?: 8+ playoff wins
KXNBAPLAYOFFWINS-26OKC-8
Analysis
This market is assessing the likelihood that Detroit will win at least 12 games during the 2026 NBA playoffs, which would require reaching at least the Conference Finals. At 33%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about Detroit's playoff depth and performance. The current level suggests markets view Detroit as a competitive playoff team but not among the favorites—notably, Oklahoma City trades at 67% for the same threshold, while San Antonio and New York are at 27% and 31% respectively. Detroit would need to either secure a high seed and make a deep run, or win multiple series against quality opponents. The resolution depends on actual playoff outcomes beginning in April 2026, with the market pricing in questions about roster health, matchup dynamics, and whether Detroit's regular season performance translates to sustained postseason success.
- ›Detroit's regular season win total and playoff seeding relative to conference competition
- ›Head-to-head playoff matchup difficulty—12+ wins requires at least Conference Finals appearance, contingent on bracket positioning
- ›Comparison to peer markets shows Detroit priced between weaker contenders (San Antonio 27%, New York 31%) and stronger favorites (Oklahoma City 67%), suggesting moderate competitive positioning
- ›Volume concentration on Detroit's 5+ and 8+ game thresholds indicates market focus on whether they reach second round rather than deep playoff run
- ›Roster injury status and bench depth performance during playoffs will directly impact series-by-series advancement probability
What moved the line
- May 67+ playoff wins↑49pp31→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 69+ playoff wins↑45pp13→58¢ · Kalshi
- May 68+ playoff wins↑42pp20→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 67+ playoff wins↑41pp11→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 610+ playoff wins↓40pp64→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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