Will Devin Vassell start the game for the San Antonio Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
19 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2026
90 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Yaxel Lendeborg start the game for the Golden State Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Jake LaRavia start the game for the Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Dean Wade start the game for the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Dalton Knecht start the game for the Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Quentin Grimes start the game for the Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Adem Bona start the game for the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Ariel Hukporti start the game for the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Kentavious Caldwell-Pope start the game for the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Derrick White start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Hugo González start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Jayson Tatum start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Jordan Walsh start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 13
Will Mike Conley start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 14
Will Mitchell Robinson start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Neemias Queta start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 16
Will Paul George start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 17
Will Payton Pritchard start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 18
Will Sam Hauser start the game for the Boston Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 19
Will Cooper Flagg start the game for the Dallas Pro Basketball team in their first game of the 2026-27 regular season
Analysis
This represents a 63% probability that Devin Vassell will be in the San Antonio Spurs' starting lineup for their opening game of the 2026-27 season. The current level reflects Vassell's established role as a key rotation player, though the projection leaves meaningful uncertainty about potential roster changes, injuries, or coaching decisions during the offseason and preseason. The main drivers are Vassell's recent performance trajectory and team depth at his position. The probability will move significantly closer to resolution when the Spurs announce their opening night roster following preseason games in October 2026. Any major injuries to San Antonio's wings, trades involving Vassell, or significant changes to the coaching staff would create material upside or downside from the current level.
- ›Vassell averaged 13.7 points and appeared in 54 games in the 2025-26 season, establishing baseline expectations for his role in 2026-27
- ›No reported trade rumors or significant roster moves involving Vassell as of late July 2026 suggest continuity in his status
- ›The Spurs' depth chart at shooting guard and small forward positions will determine competing candidates for starting slots during preseason
- ›Preseason performance from September through early October 2026 typically influences first-game starting lineups and will provide direct evidence before the resolution date
- ›Coaching staff changes or strategic lineup adjustments after the 2025-26 season could alter starting rotations regardless of player performance
What moved the line
- Aug 2Cooper Flagg↓14pp93→79¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Jake LaRavia↓10pp18→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 8Quentin Grimes↑6pp61→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Payton Pritchard↑6pp59→65¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Cooper Flagg↑6pp79→85¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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