SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes May 8, 2027 · 287d

Will the Atlanta Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games in the 2026-27 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

42%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

42%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$44K

20 contracts

Closes

May 8, 2027

287 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 41% (18 days, 18 points)Aggregate: 41% on 2026-07-25
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 18d

Bracket families

12 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team win at least

5 contracts$25K

Cluster 2

Will the Milwaukee Pro Basketball team win at least

2 contracts$4K

Cluster 3

Will the New Orleans Pro Basketball team win at least

2 contracts$3K

Cluster 4

Will the Orlando Pro Basketball team win at least 4

2 contracts$2K

Cluster 5

Will the Brooklyn Pro Basketball team win at least

2 contracts$1K

Cluster 6

Will the Houston Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$3K

Cluster 7

Will the Memphis Pro Basketball team win at least 25 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$2K

Cluster 8

Will the Utah Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$2K

Cluster 9

Will the Los Angeles C Pro Basketball team win at least 35 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$1K

Cluster 10

Will the Detroit Pro Basketball team win at least 50 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$727

Cluster 11

Will the Boston Pro Basketball team record at least 55 wins in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$575

Cluster 12

Will the Cleveland Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season

1 contract$474

Analysis

This market estimates a 56% chance that the Atlanta Hawks will win at least 20 games during the 2026-27 NBA season. The current probability reflects moderate uncertainty about the team's competitiveness next season. Key drivers include the team's roster composition heading into 2026-27, coaching decisions, and injury status of core players—factors that typically stabilize as training camp approaches in October 2026. The season itself begins in late October 2026, at which point actual win-loss performance will gradually resolve this uncertainty over the subsequent months.

  • Atlanta Hawks' roster moves and free agency acquisitions during summer 2026 will directly impact competitive capability
  • Current youth-focused roster versus veteran acquisitions will determine whether the team exceeds the 20-win threshold
  • Injury status of key players entering the 2026-27 season, particularly any major roster pieces, affects win projection
  • Coach and front office personnel decisions made before October 2026 training camp will influence tactical approach and player development
  • Historical 2025-26 season performance and win total will serve as a baseline for projecting 2026-27 results

What moved the line

  • Jul 2425+ wins48pp1866¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 1920+ wins25pp8459¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 2445+ wins18pp4830¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 2445+ wins18pp6547¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 1825+ wins16pp6246¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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