Will the Atlanta Pro Basketball team win at least 20 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
37%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
20 contracts
Closes
May 8, 2027
230 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Orlando Pro Basketball team win at least
Cluster 2
Will the Utah Pro Basketball team win at least 4
Cluster 3
Will the Sacramento Pro Basketball team win at least
Cluster 4
Will the Charlotte Pro Basketball team win at least 3
Cluster 5
Will the Indiana Pro Basketball team win at least
Cluster 6
Will the Philadelphia Pro Basketball team win at least 5
Cluster 7
Will the Milwaukee Pro Basketball team win at least 40 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 8
Will the Los Angeles C Pro Basketball team win at least 30 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 9
Will the Portland Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 10
Will the Miami Pro Basketball team win at least 50 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Will the Miami Pro Basketball team win at least 50 games in the 2026-27 regular season?: 50+ wins
KXNBAWINS-27MIA-50
Cluster 11
Will the Detroit Pro Basketball team win at least 50 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 12
Will the Minnesota Pro Basketball team win at least 40 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Cluster 13
Will the Dallas Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Will the Dallas Pro Basketball team win at least 45 games in the 2026-27 regular season?: 45+ wins
KXNBAWINS-27DAL-45
Cluster 14
Will the Oklahoma City Pro Basketball team win at least 70 games in the 2026-27 regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 56% chance that the Atlanta Hawks will win at least 20 games during the 2026-27 NBA season. The current probability reflects moderate uncertainty about the team's competitiveness next season. Key drivers include the team's roster composition heading into 2026-27, coaching decisions, and injury status of core players—factors that typically stabilize as training camp approaches in October 2026. The season itself begins in late October 2026, at which point actual win-loss performance will gradually resolve this uncertainty over the subsequent months.
- ›Atlanta Hawks' roster moves and free agency acquisitions during summer 2026 will directly impact competitive capability
- ›Current youth-focused roster versus veteran acquisitions will determine whether the team exceeds the 20-win threshold
- ›Injury status of key players entering the 2026-27 season, particularly any major roster pieces, affects win projection
- ›Coach and front office personnel decisions made before October 2026 training camp will influence tactical approach and player development
- ›Historical 2025-26 season performance and win total will serve as a baseline for projecting 2026-27 results
What moved the line
- Sep 1950+ wins↑6pp15→21¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1945+ wins↓6pp33→27¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1750+ wins↓6pp51→45¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1940+ wins↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 1925+ wins↓5pp42→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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