Will Philadelphia be scheduled to play against Boston in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$395
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 9, 2027
155 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will New York be scheduled to play against” vs “Will Boston”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York be scheduled to play against
Will New York be scheduled to play against Boston in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Boston
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-BOS
Will New York be scheduled to play against Washington in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Washington
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-WAS
Will New York be scheduled to play against San Antonio in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: San Antonio
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-SAS
Will New York be scheduled to play against Philadelphia in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Philadelphia
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-PHI
Will New York be scheduled to play against Miami in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Miami
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-MIA
Will New York be scheduled to play against Indiana in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Indiana
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-IND
Will New York be scheduled to play against Cleveland in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Cleveland
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26NYK-CLE
Cluster 2
Will Boston
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Miami in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Miami
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26BOS-MIA
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Washington in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Washington
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26BOS-WAS
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Philadelphia in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Philadelphia
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26BOS-PHI
Will Boston be scheduled to play against New York in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: New York
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26BOS-NYK
Will Boston not be scheduled to play on Christmas in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Not scheduled to play on Christmas
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26BOS-NONE
Cluster 3
Will Philadelphia be scheduled to play against
Will Philadelphia be scheduled to play against Boston in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Boston
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26PHI-BOS
Will Philadelphia be scheduled to play against Miami in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Miami
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26PHI-MIA
Cluster 4
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against Denver in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Denver
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26OKC-DEN
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against Minnesota in a Christmas Day Game in the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Minnesota
KXNBAXMASOPPONENT-26OKC-MIN
Analysis
This probability reflects the roughly 1-in-5 chance that Philadelphia and Boston will be matched against each other for an NBA Christmas Day game in the 2026-27 season. The NFL traditionally uses Christmas games as premium television content featuring marquee matchups, typically involving larger markets and playoff-caliber teams. Both Philadelphia and Boston qualify as major markets with storied franchises, making a matchup plausible but not certain. The NBA schedule is typically finalized in August, with the league balancing competitive equity, regional matchups, and broadcast appeal. Whether these teams meet on Christmas depends on their projected competitiveness, existing divisional/conference scheduling constraints, and the league's broader strategic choices for that day's slate. The uncertainty will be substantially resolved once the official 2026-27 schedule is announced.
- ›NBA typically schedules 3-5 games on Christmas Day, requiring selection from 30 teams with limited slots available
- ›Both Philadelphia and Boston are historically major television markets with playoff-track records, increasing their likelihood of selection relative to smaller-market teams
- ›The two teams play in the same conference (Eastern), which may favor or disfavor inter-divisional Christmas matchups depending on league strategy
- ›Official 2026-27 NBA schedule announcement is expected in August 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract
- ›Relative strength projections and competitive parity of both teams heading into 2026-27 will influence whether the league considers them attractive Christmas opponents
What moved the line
- Aug 3Miami↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Boston↓5pp34→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6San Antonio↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Boston↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Miami↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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