SimpleFunctions
8 contractsKalshirefreshed 6 min agoCloses Jan 3, 2027 · 245d

Will Ole Miss win the College Baseball World Series

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 8 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

8 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$33K

8 contracts

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

245 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 7% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 7% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 8 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

7 clusters across 8 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Georgia” vs “Will Texas A&M win the College Baseball World Series”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Georgia

2 contracts$2K

Cluster 2

Will Texas A&M win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$13K

Cluster 3

Will UCLA win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$6K

Cluster 4

Will Texas win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$5K

Cluster 5

Will Auburn win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$3K

Cluster 6

Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$2K

Cluster 7

Will Mississippi St. win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$2K

Analysis

Ole Miss is currently assigned an 8% probability of winning the College Baseball World Series, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. This reflects market participants' assessment that the Rebels have a roughly 1-in-12 chance of capturing the national championship. The probability is driven by team performance metrics, roster strength, and comparative odds against other contenders like Texas A&M (4%) and UCLA (16%). The College Baseball World Series in June will definitively resolve this market, as the tournament determines the national champion. Factors influencing the probability include Ole Miss's regular-season record, pitching depth, offensive output, and seeding position entering the postseason, all of which affect their tournament trajectory and path to Omaha.

  • Ole Miss's NCAA tournament seeding and bracket placement relative to other top programs
  • Team batting average, earned run average, and win-loss record compared to other College World Series contenders
  • Injury status of key players and availability of starting pitchers for tournament play
  • Historical performance of Ole Miss baseball in postseason play and tournament environments
  • Strength of schedule and recent form heading into the College Baseball World Series in June 2026

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.