SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 23, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
2 source contracts·Kalshi 2·closed just now·Closes Jul 7, 2026 · 14d

Will Ole Miss win the College Baseball World Series

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

48%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

48%

2 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$209K

2 contracts

Closes

Jul 7, 2026

14 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 49% (29 days, 29 points)Aggregate: 49% on 2026-06-22
Aggregate of 2 contracts · 29d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 2 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Oklahoma win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$118K

Cluster 2

Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series

1 contract$91K

Analysis

Ole Miss is currently assigned an 8% probability of winning the College Baseball World Series, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. This reflects market participants' assessment that the Rebels have a roughly 1-in-12 chance of capturing the national championship. The probability is driven by team performance metrics, roster strength, and comparative odds against other contenders like Texas A&M (4%) and UCLA (16%). The College Baseball World Series in June will definitively resolve this market, as the tournament determines the national champion. Factors influencing the probability include Ole Miss's regular-season record, pitching depth, offensive output, and seeding position entering the postseason, all of which affect their tournament trajectory and path to Omaha.

  • Ole Miss's NCAA tournament seeding and bracket placement relative to other top programs
  • Team batting average, earned run average, and win-loss record compared to other College World Series contenders
  • Injury status of key players and availability of starting pitchers for tournament play
  • Historical performance of Ole Miss baseball in postseason play and tournament environments
  • Strength of schedule and recent form heading into the College Baseball World Series in June 2026

What moved the line

  • Jun 20North Carolina18pp6042¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 18Oklahoma15pp2237¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22Oklahoma14pp5743¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 22North Carolina13pp4154¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 20Oklahoma12pp3850¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.