Will Ole Miss win the College Baseball World Series
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$209K
2 contracts
Closes
Jul 7, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Oklahoma win the College Baseball World Series
Will Oklahoma win the College Baseball World Series?: Oklahoma
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-OKLA
Cluster 2
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series
Will North Carolina win the College Baseball World Series?: North Carolina
KXNCAABASEBALL-26-UNC
Analysis
Ole Miss is currently assigned an 8% probability of winning the College Baseball World Series, based on aggregated contract prices from prediction markets. This reflects market participants' assessment that the Rebels have a roughly 1-in-12 chance of capturing the national championship. The probability is driven by team performance metrics, roster strength, and comparative odds against other contenders like Texas A&M (4%) and UCLA (16%). The College Baseball World Series in June will definitively resolve this market, as the tournament determines the national champion. Factors influencing the probability include Ole Miss's regular-season record, pitching depth, offensive output, and seeding position entering the postseason, all of which affect their tournament trajectory and path to Omaha.
- ›Ole Miss's NCAA tournament seeding and bracket placement relative to other top programs
- ›Team batting average, earned run average, and win-loss record compared to other College World Series contenders
- ›Injury status of key players and availability of starting pitchers for tournament play
- ›Historical performance of Ole Miss baseball in postseason play and tournament environments
- ›Strength of schedule and recent form heading into the College Baseball World Series in June 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 20North Carolina↓18pp60→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Oklahoma↑15pp22→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Oklahoma↓14pp57→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22North Carolina↑13pp41→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Oklahoma↑12pp38→50¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 0d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 5d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 6d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 6d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (48% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.