Rolijah Hardy records the most sacks in the Big Ten
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$176
16 contracts
Closes
Jan 7, 2027
133 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Julian Sayin records the most passing
Cluster 2
Jayden Maiava records the most passing
Cluster 3
Josh Hoover records the most passing
Cluster 4
Anthony Colandrea records the most passing
Cluster 5
Dante Moore records the most passing
Cluster 6
Dylan Lonergan records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Dylan Lonergan
Dylan Lonergan records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Dylan Lonergan
KXNCAAFBIGTENLEADER-26PASSYDS-RUTGDLON
Cluster 7
Tanook Hines records the most receiving yards in the Big Ten: Tanook Hines
Tanook Hines records the most receiving yards in the Big Ten: Tanook Hines
KXNCAAFBIGTENLEADER-26RECYDS-USCTHIN
Cluster 8
Rocco Becht records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Rocco Becht
Rocco Becht records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Rocco Becht
KXNCAAFBIGTENLEADER-26PASSTD-PSURBEC
Cluster 9
Anthony Smith records the most sacks in the Big Ten: Anthony Smith
Anthony Smith records the most sacks in the Big Ten: Anthony Smith
KXNCAAFBIGTENLEADER-26SACK-MINNASMI
Cluster 10
Demond Williams Jr. records the most passing touchdowns in the Big Ten: Demond Williams Jr
Cluster 11
Malik Washington records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Malik Washington
Malik Washington records the most passing yards in the Big Ten: Malik Washington
KXNCAAFBIGTENLEADER-26PASSYDS-MDMWAS
Analysis
This probability indicates a 16% chance that Rolijah Hardy finishes the 2026 Big Ten football season with more sacks than any other player in the conference. The market is pricing in competition from multiple defensive standouts across Big Ten programs. Hardy's probability would move higher if he demonstrates exceptional performance early in the season relative to peers, or lower if other defensive ends or linebacker prospects emerge as more dominant pass rushers. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the conclusion of the regular season in November 2026, when final Big Ten sack statistics can be calculated and compared across all players.
- ›Hardy's sack total through the first 4-6 weeks of the season compared to other projected Big Ten defensive leaders
- ›Whether Hardy receives consistent playing time and defensive snaps relative to other top pass rushers in the conference
- ›The strength of Hardy's team's pass rush scheme and whether it generates favorable opportunities for individual sack accumulation
- ›Injury status and availability of other top Big Ten defensive prospects competing for sack leader distinction
- ›Conference-wide statistics tracking through mid-season that would indicate relative performance trajectories
What moved the line
- Aug 24Julian Sayin↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Julian Sayin↓6pp22→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Josh Hoover↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Jayden Maiava↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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