Will Oregon finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 28% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
28%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$415
15 contracts
Closes
Feb 7, 2027
164 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will USC finish in the top”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Will Michigan finish in the top 5 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T5-MICH
Will Michigan St. finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan St.
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T4-MSU
Will Michigan finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T3-MICH
Will Michigan finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Michigan
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T4-MICH
Cluster 2
Will USC finish in the top
Cluster 3
Will Indiana finish in the top
Will Indiana finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Indiana
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T3-IND
Will Indiana finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season?: Indiana
KXNCAAFBIGTENREGTOP-27T4-IND
Cluster 4
Will Ohio State finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 5
Will Oregon finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 6
Will UCLA finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 7
Will Penn State finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 8
Will Washington finish in the top 3 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 9
Will Illinois finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Cluster 10
Will Iowa finish in the top 4 in the Big Ten in the 2026 college football regular season
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Oregon has an 18% chance of finishing among the Big Ten's top three teams in the 2026 regular season. Oregon joined the Big Ten in 2024 and faces an established group of powerhouse programs. The relatively low probability suggests market confidence that Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and other traditional Big Ten contenders will likely outperform the Ducks. The 2026 season begins in late August 2026, providing roughly one month until games start to adjust expectations based on preseason reporting, injury updates, and coaching changes. Key drivers include Oregon's offensive and defensive roster composition, whether their quarterback and offensive line remain healthy, and the relative strength of competing programs. Final resolution will depend on conference standings after all regular-season games conclude in November 2026.
- ›Oregon's offensive line and starting quarterback health and development entering the 2026 season
- ›Strength of Oregon's defensive front and secondary relative to Ohio State, Penn State, and other Big Ten contenders
- ›Conference schedule difficulty and Oregon's relative record against top-tier Big Ten opponents in head-to-head matchups
- ›Whether major coaching changes occur at Oregon or competing programs between now and the start of the season
- ›Preseason rankings and recruiting class evaluations released in summer 2026 that may reveal program trajectory shifts
What moved the line
- Aug 25Indiana↓34pp70→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Oregon↓32pp74→42¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Ohio State↓30pp44→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Ohio State↓19pp70→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Penn State↓15pp40→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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