Will Ole Miss be selected as the #5 seed in the 2026-27 College Football Playoff

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract predicts whether Ole Miss will receive the #5 seed in the College Football Playoff for the 2026-27 season, currently priced at 3% probability. At this low level, the market reflects skepticism that Ole Miss will finish the regular season with a strong enough record and resume to claim one of the top-five spots. The main factors influencing this probability are Ole Miss's performance during the 2026 regular season (schedule difficulty, win-loss record, and head-to-head results) and how competitive the broader pool of potential #5 seeds becomes. The resolution will occur when the College Football Playoff selection committee announces the four semifinalists and #5 seed in early December 2026 following the regular season's conclusion. Markets for competing schools like Oklahoma and Texas A&M trade at similar low probabilities, suggesting the #5 seed is expected to come from a much smaller set of traditional powerhouses or unexpected breakout teams.

• ›Ole Miss's regular season record through November 2026, with particular attention to wins against ranked opponents and strength of schedule
• ›Conference performance and standings position, particularly in the SEC where Ole Miss competes
• ›Comparative strength of other potential #5-seed contenders based on their regular season records and head-to-head results
• ›Selection committee's historical bias toward conference champions and teams from Power Four conferences
• ›Whether Ole Miss experiences unexpected injuries to key players or coaching changes that would significantly alter playoff prospects

What moved the line

• Aug 26Oregon↓15pp18→3¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 25Oregon↓8pp26→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 25Miami (FL)↓7pp10→3¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 25Texas↑7pp1→8¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 25Indiana↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds