Will Scott Drew be the next permanent head coach of Kansas men's college basketball
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 10, 2026
185 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Billy Donovan be the next permanent head coach of Kansas men's college basketball
Cluster 2
Will Jacque Vaughn be the next permanent head coach of Kansas men's college basketball
Analysis
This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scott Drew will become Kansas's next permanent head coach. Drew has established himself as a successful coach at Baylor, where he's built a competitive program, but the low probability suggests significant barriers to this outcome. The main factors affecting this estimate are whether Kansas's current coaching situation changes, Drew's willingness to leave Baylor for another job, and the strength of competing candidates. Any announcement regarding Kansas's coaching vacancy or Drew's contract status would materially shift this probability. The resolution depends on whether Kansas actually opens its head coaching position and whether Drew emerges as the top candidate when that occurs.
- ›Scott Drew has a long-term commitment to Baylor with no recent public signals of interest in departing for another NCAA program
- ›Kansas would need to create a head coaching vacancy through termination or resignation of its current coach, which has not been announced
- ›Multiple candidates typically compete for high-profile college basketball positions like Kansas, diluting any single candidate's probability
- ›Drew's track record at Baylor (tournament appearances, program stability) makes him potentially attractive to blue-blood programs, but also creates high opportunity cost to leave
- ›Market pricing at 8% suggests this outcome is considered possible but substantially less likely than other scenarios for Kansas's next permanent coach
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.