Will Scott Drew be the next permanent head coach of Kansas men's college basketball

30-day trend

Analysis

This 8% probability reflects the market's assessment that Scott Drew will become Kansas's next permanent head coach. Drew has established himself as a successful coach at Baylor, where he's built a competitive program, but the low probability suggests significant barriers to this outcome. The main factors affecting this estimate are whether Kansas's current coaching situation changes, Drew's willingness to leave Baylor for another job, and the strength of competing candidates. Any announcement regarding Kansas's coaching vacancy or Drew's contract status would materially shift this probability. The resolution depends on whether Kansas actually opens its head coaching position and whether Drew emerges as the top candidate when that occurs.

• ›Scott Drew has a long-term commitment to Baylor with no recent public signals of interest in departing for another NCAA program
• ›Kansas would need to create a head coaching vacancy through termination or resignation of its current coach, which has not been announced
• ›Multiple candidates typically compete for high-profile college basketball positions like Kansas, diluting any single candidate's probability
• ›Drew's track record at Baylor (tournament appearances, program stability) makes him potentially attractive to blue-blood programs, but also creates high opportunity cost to leave
• ›Market pricing at 8% suggests this outcome is considered possible but substantially less likely than other scenarios for Kansas's next permanent coach

What moved the line

• Jun 24Mike Boynton Jr.↓17pp52→35¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Billy Donovan↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Mike Boynton Jr.↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 23Josh Schertz↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 24Josh Schertz↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 1d
• Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 2d
• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 6d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 7d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds