SimpleFunctions
6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 1, 2026 · 53d

Will Copart be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

10%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

10%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

6 contracts

Closes

Oct 1, 2026

53 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 12% (21 days, 21 points)Aggregate: 12% on 2026-08-09
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 21d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Workday be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Copart be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will DexCom be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will GE HealthCare be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Kraft Heinz be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Strategy be removed from the Nasdaq-100 in Q3 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market estimates a 6% probability that Copart will be removed from the Nasdaq-100 index during the third quarter of 2026. Index composition changes occur when companies are added or deleted based on criteria including market capitalization, liquidity, and fundamentals. Copart would face removal if its market cap fell significantly, if the index reconstitution committee determined it no longer met inclusion standards, or if a major corporate action occurred. The Nasdaq-100 reconstitutes periodically, with changes typically announced quarterly. The main drivers of removal risk are stock price declines that reduce market capitalization below thresholds relative to other index constituents, deteriorating trading volume, or fundamental business deterioration. Key dates include the next scheduled index review announcement, which would signal whether Copart faces any inclusion risk. Current trading volume and market positioning suggest low removal probability, though unexpected earnings misses or sector downturns could alter this assessment.

  • Copart's market capitalization relative to Nasdaq-100 inclusion thresholds and other index constituents
  • Trading volume and liquidity metrics compared to index requirements
  • Scheduled index reconstitution dates and announcement timeline in Q3 2026
  • Stock price performance and market cap changes in the months leading to potential reconstitution
  • Any announced corporate actions, mergers, or material business developments affecting index eligibility

Recently closed in markets

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.