Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jun 2026
Leader sits at 20% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Before December
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$911
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
187 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jan 2027?: Before 2027
KXNEWGLENN-272-JAN
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Nov 2026?: Before November
KXNEWGLENN-262-NOV
Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Dec 2026?: Before December
KXNEWGLENN-262-DEC
Analysis
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket will achieve its first orbital launch before January 2027, roughly 7 months from now. The relatively low odds suggest traders view this timeline as challenging but not impossible. New Glenn has faced multiple delays since its original target dates, and development of large orbital rockets typically encounters technical hurdles that compress the available launch window. The primary factors affecting this probability are Blue Origin's stated readiness timeline, completion of launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral, and any technical issues discovered during final testing phases. The next major catalyst would be an official company announcement confirming a specific launch date or acknowledging further delays. Contract pricing shows markets assign only 7% probability to a November 2026 launch and 14% to December 2026, indicating concentrated skepticism about the nearer-term windows.
- ›Blue Origin has not yet announced a confirmed orbital launch date for New Glenn as of mid-2026, despite years of development
- ›The rocket requires completion and certification of launch pad infrastructure at Cape Canaveral before any orbital attempt
- ›Historical precedent shows heavy-lift rocket programs frequently experience delays during final integration and testing phases
- ›Market pricing across the three contracts shows declining probabilities for each successive month (7% Nov, 14% Dec, 19% Jan), suggesting uncertainty about exact timing rather than confidence in any single window
- ›Technical issues discovered in final testing could easily push a launch into 2027 or beyond
What moved the line
- Jun 23Before 2027↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Before 2027↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before November↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Before December↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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