Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team
Leader sits at 44% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 13%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Erik ten Hag
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
13¢
Arne Slot
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$110
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
334 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: Erik ten Hag
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-ETHA
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: Michael Reiziger
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-MREI
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: Louis van Gaal
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-LVGA
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: Arne Slot
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-ASLO
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: Ruud van Nistelrooy
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-RVNI
Who will be the next manager of Netherlands National Football Team?: John Heitinga
KXNEXTMANAGER-27NLD-JHEI
Analysis
The Netherlands National Football Team will select its next manager, with current betting markets assigning an 80% probability to Arne Slot. This reflects trader expectations about who will fill the coaching position based on available candidates and recent events. The high concentration on Slot likely stems from his profile as an experienced Dutch manager, while lower probabilities on alternatives like Erik ten Hag (8%) and Louis van Gaal (6%) suggest traders view them as less likely given current circumstances. Key factors include whether the KNVB (Dutch Football Association) has made an internal decision or continues evaluating candidates, the timeline for an official announcement, and developments affecting top candidates' current positions. The resolution will depend on an official KNVB appointment announcement, which would eliminate uncertainty and determine the winning outcome among the four candidates currently priced in the market.
- ›Arne Slot's current managerial status and availability relative to his club commitments
- ›The KNVB's publicly stated timeline for announcing the new manager appointment
- ›Recent performance or statements from competing candidates like Ten Hag and Van Gaal that could shift their relative likelihood
- ›Whether any candidate withdraws from consideration or accepts another position
- ›Official KNVB announcement of the appointment, which resolves the contract
What moved the line
- Aug 4Erik ten Hag↓9pp60→51¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Louis van Gaal↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Erik ten Hag↓5pp65→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Michael Reiziger↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Erik ten Hag↓4pp51→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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