Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$791
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2045
6812 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Cătălin” vs “Will Lucian”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Cătălin
Cluster 2
Will Lucian
Cluster 3
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Sorin Grindeanu
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-SGRI
Cluster 4
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Marcel Ciolacu
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-MCIO
Cluster 5
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Mugur Isărescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Mugur Isărescu
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-MISA
Cluster 6
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Mircea Geoană be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Mircea Geoană
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-MGEO
Cluster 7
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Anca Dragu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Anca Dragu
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-ADRA
Cluster 8
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: George Simion
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-GSIM
Cluster 9
Will Nicolae Ciucă be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Nicolae Ciucă be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Nicolae Ciucă
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-NCIU
Cluster 10
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Alexandru Rafila
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-ARAF
Cluster 11
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Sebastian Burduja be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Sebastian Burduja
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-SBUR
Cluster 12
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Ionuț Dumitru be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Ionuț Dumitru
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-IDUM
Cluster 13
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Elena Lasconi
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-ELAS
Cluster 14
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Vasile Dîncu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Vasile Dîncu
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-VDIN
Cluster 15
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Dacian Cioloș
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-DCIO
Cluster 16
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Emil Boc be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Emil Boc
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-EBOC
Cluster 17
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Dominic Fritz
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-DFRI
Cluster 18
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania
Will Raluca Turcan be the next Prime Minister of Romania?: Raluca Turcan
KXNEXTROMANIAPM-45JAN01-RTUR
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.