SimpleFunctions
6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 21, 2028 · 637d

Will Joe Schoen win the Executive of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

6%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

6%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

6 contracts

Closes

Feb 21, 2028

637 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 6% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 6% on 2026-05-22
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 9d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Andrew Berry win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Howie Roseman win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Ian Cunningham win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will John Lynch win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will John Schneider win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Mickey Loomis win the Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Joe Schoen, the New York Giants' General Manager, has a 4% chance of winning NFL Executive of the Year for the 2026 season. The low probability suggests the market views Schoen as unlikely to be selected among the year's top GM candidates. Key factors driving this assessment include the Giants' recent performance trajectory, whether significant roster improvements materialize during the 2026 season, and how Schoen's personnel decisions compare to peers like Brian Gutekunst (Green Bay) and Ryan Poles (Chicago), who have higher probabilities in the market. The award will be determined following the 2026 NFL season, typically announced in early 2027, based on factors including team improvement, draft success, free agency moves, and overall executive performance. Resolution depends on both the Giants' on-field results and voters' perception of Schoen's strategic decisions relative to other front-office executives.

  • Giants' 2026 regular season win-loss record and whether it significantly exceeds 2025 performance
  • Quality and production impact of Schoen's 2026 draft picks and free agency acquisitions
  • Comparison of Giants' front-office moves to competing GMs (Gutekunst, Poles, others) in franchise trajectory and player development
  • Market perception of Schoen's handling of quarterback situation and roster composition heading into season
  • Award voting timeline and pattern in Executive of the Year selection, typically favoring GMs of over-performing teams in January 2027

What moved the line

  • May 22Howie Roseman6pp17¢ · Kalshi
  • May 22John Schneider5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 22John Lynch4pp48¢ · Kalshi
  • May 22Mickey Loomis3pp25¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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