Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
155 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Todd Bowles be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Todd Bowles be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Todd Bowles
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-TBOW
Cluster 2
Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Dan Quinn be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dan Quinn
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-DQUI
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Glenn be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Aaron Glenn be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Aaron Glenn
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-AGLE
Cluster 4
Will Dan Campbell be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Dan Campbell be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dan Campbell
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-DCAM
Cluster 5
Will Dave Canales be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Dave Canales be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Dave Canales
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-DCAN
Cluster 6
Will Jeff Hafley be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Jeff Hafley be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Jeff Hafley
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-JHAF
Cluster 7
Will Mike LaFleur be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Mike LaFleur be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Mike LaFleur
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-MILA
Cluster 8
Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Mike McCarthy be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Mike McCarthy
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-MMCC
Cluster 9
Will Zac Taylor be the next coach out in Pro Football
Will Zac Taylor be the next coach out in Pro Football?: Zac Taylor
KXNFLNEXTCOACHOUT-27I1-ZTAY
Analysis
This 6% probability reflects the market's assessment that Dan Quinn will be the first NFL head coach to be fired or resign. Quinn is currently in his first season as head coach of the Dallas Cowboys after spending 2024 as their defensive coordinator. The low probability relative to peers like Aaron Glenn (11%) suggests market confidence in Quinn's position despite any early-season performance questions. Key factors include the Cowboys' win-loss record through the season, organizational stability under owner Jerry Jones, and whether mid-season performance triggers front office changes. The main uncertainty resolver will be the Cowboys' performance through Week 8-9 and any public statements from ownership about coaching decisions. Coaches with established organizational support and multi-year contracts typically face lower removal probability early in their tenure.
- ›Dallas Cowboys' win-loss record and playoff positioning through mid-season; teams significantly underperforming expectations increase coaching change likelihood
- ›Public statements from Cowboys owner Jerry Jones regarding Quinn's job security and the team's direction
- ›Quinn's performance metrics compared to peer coaches (Aaron Glenn at 11%, Dave Canales at 8%) suggesting relative confidence in his role
- ›Dallas roster quality and injury status affecting on-field performance and pressure on coaching staff
- ›Contract terms and financial commitment to Quinn; longer guaranteed deals reduce firing likelihood
What moved the line
- Sep 10Aaron Glenn↑7pp13→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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