Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC East Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 25% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
25%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$3K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
261 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC East Division
Will Dallas win the Pro Football NFC East Division?: Dallas
KXNFLNFCEAST-27-DAL
Cluster 2
Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC East Division
Will Philadelphia win the Pro Football NFC East Division?: Philadelphia
KXNFLNFCEAST-27-PHI
Cluster 3
Will Washington win the Pro Football NFC East Division
Will Washington win the Pro Football NFC East Division?: Washington
KXNFLNFCEAST-27-WAS
Cluster 4
Will New York G win the Pro Football NFC East Division
Will New York G win the Pro Football NFC East Division?: New York G
KXNFLNFCEAST-27-NYG
Analysis
This 26% probability reflects market expectations that Philadelphia will finish first in the NFC East division during the 2026 NFL season. The current odds suggest moderate skepticism about the Eagles' divisional prospects relative to rivals like Dallas and Washington. Key factors shaping this view likely include recent team performance, roster composition, injury status heading into the season, and off-season acquisitions. The main uncertainty will be resolved through the 2026 NFL regular season, which typically runs September through early January, with the division winner determined by win-loss record. Movement in this probability would depend on preseason performance, training camp reports, and any significant injuries or trades announced before September.
- ›Philadelphia's win-loss record relative to other NFC East teams during the 2026 regular season will determine the outcome; the division winner is decided by head-to-head tiebreakers and overall record
- ›Roster changes and injury status entering the 2026 season, including quarterback health and availability of key defensive players, will affect competitive positioning
- ›Offensive and defensive performance metrics through the regular season, including scoring efficiency and defensive rankings, will influence playoff positioning within the division
- ›The strength of schedule and performance against common opponents will determine whether Philadelphia finishes ahead of Washington, Dallas, and New York
- ›Trading activity or coaching changes during the off-season could shift competitive dynamics within the division before the season begins
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.