SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 15, 2027 · 147d

Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

48%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

48%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

19 contracts

Closes

Feb 15, 2027

147 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 46% (15 days, 15 points)Aggregate: 46% on 2026-09-19
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 15d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Atlanta host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 2

Will Baltimore host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Buffalo host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Dallas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Denver host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Detroit host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Green Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Houston host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Las Vegas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Los Angeles R host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Miami host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Minnesota host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will New England host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will New York G host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Philadelphia host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will San Francisco host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Seattle host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Tampa Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the Kansas City Chiefs will earn a playoff berth and secure home-field advantage in at least one postseason game during the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. The 26% estimate reflects their current regular-season positioning and historical performance relative to other AFC teams. The primary drivers of this probability are Kansas City's win-loss record relative to other conference contenders, their strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2026 regular season, and playoff seeding implications. The resolution will be determined by the NFL regular season's conclusion in early January 2027, when playoff seedings are finalized. Comparing this to similar teams (Buffalo at 51%, Denver at 28%, Cincinnati at 32%) suggests markets view Kansas City's current playoff positioning as below average for tier-one contenders.

  • Kansas City's current 2026 regular-season record compared to division rivals (AFC West) and AFC playoff contender standings
  • Remaining strength of schedule and head-to-head tiebreaker implications through the end of the regular season in January 2027
  • Playoff seeding outcome: only division winners and top six seeds host playoff games, so KCC must finish within AFC top-6
  • Injury status of key roster players including starting quarterback and defensive core
  • Performance trends across the final 8-10 weeks of the 2026 regular season relative to competing AFC teams

What moved the line

  • Sep 17New York G87pp794¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 17Minnesota82pp1395¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18Minnesota79pp9516¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 19Minnesota79pp1695¢ · Kalshi
  • Sep 18New York G76pp9418¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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