Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 48% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
48%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
147 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Atlanta host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Atlanta
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Baltimore host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Baltimore host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Baltimore
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-BAL
Cluster 3
Will Buffalo host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Buffalo host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Buffalo
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-BUF
Cluster 4
Will Dallas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Dallas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Dallas
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-DAL
Cluster 5
Will Denver host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Denver host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Denver
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-DEN
Cluster 6
Will Detroit host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Detroit host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Detroit
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-DET
Cluster 7
Will Green Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Green Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Green Bay
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-GB
Cluster 8
Will Houston host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Houston host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Houston
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-HOU
Cluster 9
Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Kansas City host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Kansas City
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-KC
Cluster 10
Will Las Vegas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Las Vegas host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Las Vegas
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-LV
Cluster 11
Will Los Angeles R host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Los Angeles R host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-LA
Cluster 12
Will Miami host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Miami host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Miami
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-MIA
Cluster 13
Will Minnesota host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Minnesota host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Minnesota
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-MIN
Cluster 14
Will New England host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will New England host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: New England
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-NE
Cluster 15
Will New York G host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will New York G host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: New York G
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-NYG
Cluster 16
Will Philadelphia host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Philadelphia host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Philadelphia
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-PHI
Cluster 17
Will San Francisco host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will San Francisco host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: San Francisco
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-SF
Cluster 18
Will Seattle host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Seattle host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Seattle
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-SEA
Cluster 19
Will Tampa Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs
Will Tampa Bay host a playoff game in the 2026-27 Pro Football playoffs?: Tampa Bay
KXNFLPLAYOFFHOST-26-TB
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that the Kansas City Chiefs will earn a playoff berth and secure home-field advantage in at least one postseason game during the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. The 26% estimate reflects their current regular-season positioning and historical performance relative to other AFC teams. The primary drivers of this probability are Kansas City's win-loss record relative to other conference contenders, their strength of schedule for the remainder of the 2026 regular season, and playoff seeding implications. The resolution will be determined by the NFL regular season's conclusion in early January 2027, when playoff seedings are finalized. Comparing this to similar teams (Buffalo at 51%, Denver at 28%, Cincinnati at 32%) suggests markets view Kansas City's current playoff positioning as below average for tier-one contenders.
- ›Kansas City's current 2026 regular-season record compared to division rivals (AFC West) and AFC playoff contender standings
- ›Remaining strength of schedule and head-to-head tiebreaker implications through the end of the regular season in January 2027
- ›Playoff seeding outcome: only division winners and top six seeds host playoff games, so KCC must finish within AFC top-6
- ›Injury status of key roster players including starting quarterback and defensive core
- ›Performance trends across the final 8-10 weeks of the 2026 regular season relative to competing AFC teams
What moved the line
- Sep 17New York G↑87pp7→94¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Minnesota↑82pp13→95¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Minnesota↓79pp95→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Minnesota↑79pp16→95¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18New York G↓76pp94→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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