Will Cardi B perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 36% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
36%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
Nov 26, 2027
432 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Don Toliver perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 2
Will The Weeknd perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 3
Will Tate McRae perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 4
Will Kendrick Lamar perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 5
Will Drake perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Drake perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Drake
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-DRAK
Cluster 6
Will Taylor Swift perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 7
Will Billie Eilish perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 8
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 9
Will Ariana Grande perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 10
Will Beyoncé perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Beyoncé perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Beyoncé
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-BEYO
Cluster 11
Will SZA perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will SZA perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: SZA
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-SZA
Cluster 12
Will Harry Styles perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 13
Will Doja Cat perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Doja Cat perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Doja Cat
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-DOJA
Cluster 14
Will Tyler, The Creator perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 15
Will JENNIE perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will JENNIE perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: JENNIE
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-JENN
Cluster 16
Will Bruno Mars perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Bruno Mars perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Bruno Mars
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-BMAR
Cluster 17
Will ROSÉ perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will ROSÉ perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: ROSÉ
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-ROSE
Cluster 18
Will Alex Warren perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Alex Warren perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Alex Warren
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-AWAR
Cluster 19
Will Charli xcx perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Cluster 20
Will Ed Sheeran perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI
Will Ed Sheeran perform as an in-game radio artist at launch in GTA VI?: Ed Sheeran
KXROLEINPRODUCTION-GTA27NOV19-ESHE
Analysis
This represents the market's current estimate that Cardi B will be featured as an in-game radio artist when Grand Theft Auto VI launches. The 14% probability sits in the middle range among artists being tracked, suggesting meaningful but not dominant odds compared to higher-probability artists like The Weeknd (23%) and lower ones like Ariana Grande (12%). The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Cardi B's historical relationship with the GTA franchise and Rockstar's tendency to feature mainstream hip-hop artists in radio stations, balanced against the limited roster slots available at launch and the competitive field of major artists seeking inclusion. The key catalyst will be Rockstar's official announcement of the complete in-game radio lineup, which typically occurs in the weeks before or at launch, which would definitively resolve this contract. Until then, uncertainty remains around Cardi B's negotiation status with the studio and which artists ultimately secured spots.
- ›Cardi B has no confirmed prior involvement with GTA radio stations, unlike some competitors who have appeared in previous GTA titles
- ›The Weeknd contract trades at 23% versus Cardi B at 14%, suggesting market preference for other artists in the limited roster
- ›Rockstar has not publicly disclosed the GTA VI radio artist lineup as of mid-September 2026, leaving resolution dependent on an official announcement
- ›Hip-hop/rap is a staple genre for GTA soundtracks, which could favor Cardi B, but competing artists span multiple genres with varying market odds from 12-23%
- ›Launch radio stations typically feature 15-25 artists per station across multiple genres, creating both opportunity and scarcity that pricing reflects
What moved the line
- Sep 19Don Toliver↑43pp33→76¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Don Toliver↑21pp12→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Beyoncé↑21pp12→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Billie Eilish↑19pp14→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Sabrina Carpenter↑19pp13→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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