SimpleFunctions
12 source contracts·Kalshi 12·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 21, 2028 · 589d

Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 12 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

7%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

7%

12 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$42

12 contracts

Closes

Feb 21, 2028

589 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 8% (14 days, 14 points)Aggregate: 8% on 2026-07-07
Aggregate of 12 contracts · 14d

Bracket families

12 clusters across 12 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$42

Cluster 2

Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Joe Alt win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Creed Humphrey win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Quinn Meinerz win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Joe Thuney win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Tristan Wirfs win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Andrew Thomas win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Charles Cross win the Protector of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 5% probability reflects that Lane Johnson is considered unlikely to win the Protector of the Year award, placing him among several competing offensive linemen for the honor. The market shows meaningful dispersion across comparable players—Penei Sewell leads at 7%, while Garett Bolles and Lane Johnson tie at 6%, suggesting evaluators see them as near-peers. Johnson's probability would rise with exceptional performance metrics (pass protection efficiency, penalty reduction, consensus All-Pro selections) and fall if other candidates demonstrate superior play or accumulate individual awards throughout the season. The award decision typically occurs in January or February following the NFL regular season, when complete statistical records and voter preferences become clear.

  • Lane Johnson's current age (36 in 2026) relative to younger competitors like Sewell (mid-20s), which could influence 'Protector of the Year' voting patterns
  • Playing time and availability—any significant injuries or reduced snap counts would directly impact award eligibility and statistical accumulation
  • Comparative performance metrics: sack rate, pressure percentage, and holding penalty count relative to Sewell, Bolles, Humphrey, and Thuney
  • All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection results, which typically correlate strongly with major annual awards in the NFL
  • Team success and narrative—players on playoff teams often receive preferential award voting treatment

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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