Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$156
5 contracts
Closes
Feb 21, 2028
638 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Joe Alt win the Protector of the Year
Will Joe Alt win the Protector of the Year?: Joe Alt
KXNFLPROOTY-27-JALT76
Cluster 2
Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year
Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year?: Garett Bolles
KXNFLPROOTY-27-GBOLLES72
Cluster 3
Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year
Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year?: Dion Dawkins
KXNFLPROOTY-27-DDAWKINS73
Cluster 4
Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year
Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year?: Penei Sewell
KXNFLPROOTY-27-PSEWELL58
Cluster 5
Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year
Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year?: Trent Williams
KXNFLPROOTY-27-TWILLIAMS71
Analysis
This 5% probability reflects that Lane Johnson is considered unlikely to win the Protector of the Year award, placing him among several competing offensive linemen for the honor. The market shows meaningful dispersion across comparable players—Penei Sewell leads at 7%, while Garett Bolles and Lane Johnson tie at 6%, suggesting evaluators see them as near-peers. Johnson's probability would rise with exceptional performance metrics (pass protection efficiency, penalty reduction, consensus All-Pro selections) and fall if other candidates demonstrate superior play or accumulate individual awards throughout the season. The award decision typically occurs in January or February following the NFL regular season, when complete statistical records and voter preferences become clear.
- ›Lane Johnson's current age (36 in 2026) relative to younger competitors like Sewell (mid-20s), which could influence 'Protector of the Year' voting patterns
- ›Playing time and availability—any significant injuries or reduced snap counts would directly impact award eligibility and statistical accumulation
- ›Comparative performance metrics: sack rate, pressure percentage, and holding penalty count relative to Sewell, Bolles, Humphrey, and Thuney
- ›All-Pro and Pro Bowl selection results, which typically correlate strongly with major annual awards in the NFL
- ›Team success and narrative—players on playoff teams often receive preferential award voting treatment
What moved the line
- May 21Garett Bolles↓7pp8→1¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Trent Williams↓6pp8→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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