Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$115
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 21, 2028
519 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year
Will Dion Dawkins win the Protector of the Year?: Dion Dawkins
KXNFLPROOTY-27-DDAWKINS73
Cluster 2
Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year
Will Penei Sewell win the Protector of the Year?: Penei Sewell
KXNFLPROOTY-27-PSEWELL58
Cluster 3
Will Creed Humphrey win the Protector of the Year
Will Creed Humphrey win the Protector of the Year?: Creed Humphrey
KXNFLPROOTY-27-CHUMPHREY52
Cluster 4
Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year
Will Trent Williams win the Protector of the Year?: Trent Williams
KXNFLPROOTY-27-TWILLIAMS71
Cluster 5
Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year
Will Lane Johnson win the Protector of the Year?: Lane Johnson
KXNFLPROOTY-27-LJOHNSON65
Cluster 6
Will Christian Darrisaw win the Protector of the Year
Will Christian Darrisaw win the Protector of the Year?: Christian Darrisaw
KXNFLPROOTY-27-CDARRISAW71
Cluster 7
Will Quenton Nelson win the Protector of the Year
Will Quenton Nelson win the Protector of the Year?: Quenton Nelson
KXNFLPROOTY-27-QNELSON56
Cluster 8
Will Tristan Wirfs win the Protector of the Year
Will Tristan Wirfs win the Protector of the Year?: Tristan Wirfs
KXNFLPROOTY-27-TWIRFS78
Cluster 9
Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year
Will Garett Bolles win the Protector of the Year?: Garett Bolles
KXNFLPROOTY-27-GBOLLES72
Analysis
Lane Johnson's 7% probability reflects market expectations that he will win the NFL's Protector of the Year award, a recognition for offensive linemen. The odds suggest the Philadelphia Eagles tackle faces significant competition, with Tristan Wirfs (16%) and Quenton Nelson (14%) currently favored. Johnson's probability could rise with exceptional statistical performance, improved team success, or voter recognition of his consistency; it could fall if other candidates demonstrate clearer dominance in metrics like pass-blocking win rate or penalties. The award winner will be determined following the NFL season in early 2027, based on voting by media, coaches, and players who evaluate linemen across pass protection, run blocking, and durability. Current market pricing reflects that Johnson, while a respected veteran, faces steeper competition than the leading candidates.
- ›Lane Johnson's 7% odds place him fourth among tracked candidates, roughly half the probability of frontrunner Tristan Wirfs
- ›Pass-blocking efficiency statistics, penalty rates, and games started will be primary factors voters use to evaluate 2026 season performance
- ›Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line performance and playoff success could elevate or diminish individual lineman recognition
- ›Award voting typically occurs in January-February 2027 after the regular season concludes, providing the resolution date
- ›Wirfs and Nelson's higher probabilities suggest market participants view them as having stronger recent performance records or less positional depth competition
What moved the line
- Sep 18Dion Dawkins↑16pp2→18¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Dion Dawkins↓15pp18→3¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Creed Humphrey↑14pp3→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Penei Sewell↓10pp12→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Quenton Nelson↓5pp14→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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