SimpleFunctions
9 source contracts·Kalshi 9·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 28, 2028 · 617d

Will Indianapolis draft a Defensive Lineman / Edge first

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

12%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

12%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$39K

9 contracts

Closes

Feb 28, 2028

617 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 17% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 17% on 2026-06-20
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked” vs “Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Analysis

This probability estimates the chance that the Indianapolis Colts will select a defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first-round draft pick. At 12%, the market reflects low confidence this will happen, suggesting traders expect Indianapolis to prioritize other positions. The probability is driven by the Colts' recent roster construction and stated needs, balanced against draft class composition and available talent at each position. Historical draft patterns and team needs assessments will shift this probability as the April 2027 NFL Draft approaches. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the actual draft pick selection on that date, though pre-draft reports and roster moves in the coming months may meaningfully adjust market expectations.

  • Indianapolis's offensive line depth and defensive line composition entering 2026-27 season relative to identified roster gaps
  • Available defensive lineman and edge rusher talent rated in the top 5-15 of the 2027 draft class compared to players at other positions
  • Colts' history of draft priorities at different positions under current general management and coaching staff
  • Any major offseason trades, free agent signings, or injuries that alter positional urgency before the April 2027 draft
  • Pre-draft reports and official team statements regarding draft strategy released in the weeks before the event

What moved the line

  • Jun 1910 freshmen drafted3pp2427¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.