Will Indianapolis draft a Defensive Lineman / Edge first
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$39K
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
617 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked” vs “Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked
Who will be picked first in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?: Cameron Boozer
KXNBADRAFT1-26-CBOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Cluster 2
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 3
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 4
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
Cluster 5
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: CJ Allen
KXNFLDROTY-27-CALL
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that the Indianapolis Colts will select a defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first-round draft pick. At 12%, the market reflects low confidence this will happen, suggesting traders expect Indianapolis to prioritize other positions. The probability is driven by the Colts' recent roster construction and stated needs, balanced against draft class composition and available talent at each position. Historical draft patterns and team needs assessments will shift this probability as the April 2027 NFL Draft approaches. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the actual draft pick selection on that date, though pre-draft reports and roster moves in the coming months may meaningfully adjust market expectations.
- ›Indianapolis's offensive line depth and defensive line composition entering 2026-27 season relative to identified roster gaps
- ›Available defensive lineman and edge rusher talent rated in the top 5-15 of the 2027 draft class compared to players at other positions
- ›Colts' history of draft priorities at different positions under current general management and coaching staff
- ›Any major offseason trades, free agent signings, or injuries that alter positional urgency before the April 2027 draft
- ›Pre-draft reports and official team statements regarding draft strategy released in the weeks before the event
What moved the line
- Jun 1910 freshmen drafted↑3pp24→27¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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