Will Indianapolis draft a Defensive Lineman / Edge first
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
19 contracts
Top contract
11¢
$4K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked” vs “Will Utah win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked
Who will be picked first in the Pro Men's Basketball Draft?: Cameron Boozer
KXNBADRAFT1-26-CBOO
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Arch Manning
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-AMAN
Cluster 2
Will Utah win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Utah win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Utah
KXNBATOPPICK-26-UTA
Cluster 3
Will Ausar Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team
Cluster 4
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?: 10 freshmen drafted
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
Cluster 5
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 6
Will Chicago win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Chicago win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Chicago
KXNBATOPPICK-26-CHI
Cluster 7
Will Washington win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Washington win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Washington
KXNBATOPPICK-26-WAS
Cluster 8
Will Brooklyn win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Brooklyn win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Brooklyn
KXNBATOPPICK-26-BKN
Cluster 9
Will Indiana win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Indiana win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Indiana
KXNBATOPPICK-26-IND
Cluster 10
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: CJ Allen
KXNFLDROTY-27-CALL
Cluster 11
Will Dallas win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Dallas win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Dallas
KXNBATOPPICK-26-DAL
Cluster 12
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 13
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Atlanta
KXNBATOPPICK-26-ATL
Cluster 14
Will Sacramento win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Sacramento win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Sacramento
KXNBATOPPICK-26-SAC
Cluster 15
Will Memphis win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Memphis win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Memphis
KXNBATOPPICK-26-MEM
What moved the line
- May 3Arch Manning↓14pp28→14¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Arch Manning↑10pp18→28¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Arch Manning↑9pp12→21¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Jeremiah Smith↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Arch Manning↓5pp23→18¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.