Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 13 contracts. Kalshi at 16%, Polymarket at 29% — a 13pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
6 contracts
Polymarket
29%
7 contracts
Cross-venue gap
13pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$425K
13 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2028
783 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 16¢ · Polymarket 29¢ · 13pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (16¢, 6 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (29¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
NHL: Western Conference Champion
NHL: Western Conference Champion: Colorado Avalanche
0xba42f1…b84e
NHL: Western Conference Champion: Anaheim Ducks
0xc6fc40…3209
NHL: Western Conference Champion: Minnesota Wild
0x7de38e…f0ac
NHL: Western Conference Champion: Vegas Golden Knights
0x46d522…1d7e
Cluster 2
NHL: Eastern Conference Champion
Cluster 3
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Carolina Hurricanes
KXNHL-26-CAR
Cluster 4
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Buffalo Sabres
KXNHL-26-BUF
Cluster 5
Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Anaheim Ducks
KXNHL-26-ANA
Cluster 6
Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Colorado Avalanche
KXNHL-26-COL
Cluster 7
Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Montréal Canadiens
KXNHL-26-MTL
Cluster 8
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals?: Vegas Golden Knights
KXNHL-26-VGK
Analysis
The 16% probability reflects market expectations that the Montréal Canadiens have a roughly 1-in-6 chance of winning the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals. The market prices them below several competing teams—Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild both trade at 9 cents, while Colorado Avalanche trades substantially higher at 31 cents—suggesting skepticism about Montreal's current roster competitiveness. The Canadiens' probability is driven by their recent regular-season performance, roster depth, and playoff track record relative to other Eastern Conference contenders. Key uncertainties include whether recent trades or draft picks materially strengthen the roster before next season and how the team performs through the 2025-26 regular season. The Stanley Cup Finals themselves, scheduled for June 2026, will resolve this contract, but regular-season standings and playoff seeding emerging through April 2026 will likely compress uncertainty significantly beforehand.
- ›Montréal finished the 2024-25 season and entered the 2025-26 season; their regular-season win-loss record and playoff position as of May 2026 directly correlate to Finals probability
- ›Trading activity volume for Canadiens contracts versus competitor contracts (Colorado at 31¢ has 6× higher 24h volume than the Avalanche contract) indicates relative market conviction
- ›The 7-percentage-point spread between Kalshi (12%) and Polymarket (19%) suggests venue-specific trader disagreement on Canadiens odds that has not yet arbitraged away
- ›Recent roster moves, injuries to key players, or goaltender performance during the 2025-26 season would directly shift odds
- ›Playoff seeding and head-to-head matchups in the Eastern Conference Finals (scheduled for May-June 2026) represent the immediate catalyst determining Finals appearance likelihood
What moved the line
- May 6Western Conference Champion: Colorado Avalanche↑15pp49→64¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Western Conference Champion: Minnesota Wild↓14pp20→6¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Eastern Conference Champion: Carolina Hurricanes↑12pp51→63¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Colorado Avalanche↑7pp31→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Carolina Hurricanes↑6pp25→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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