Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$10K
14 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2029
1041 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: San Jose Sharks
KXNHL-27-SJ
Cluster 2
Will Washington Capitals win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Washington Capitals win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Washington Capitals
KXNHL-27-WSH
Cluster 3
Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Montréal Canadiens
KXNHL-27-MTL
Cluster 4
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Vegas Golden Knights
KXNHL-27-VGK
Cluster 5
Will Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Toronto Maple Leafs
KXNHL-27-TOR
Cluster 6
Will Minnesota Wild win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Minnesota Wild win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Minnesota Wild
KXNHL-27-MIN
Cluster 7
Will Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Florida Panthers
KXNHL-27-FLA
Cluster 8
Will Dallas Stars win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Dallas Stars win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Dallas Stars
KXNHL-27-DAL
Cluster 9
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Carolina Hurricanes
KXNHL-27-CAR
Cluster 10
Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Colorado Avalanche
KXNHL-27-COL
Cluster 11
Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Tampa Bay Lightning
KXNHL-27-TB
Cluster 12
Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Anaheim Ducks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Anaheim Ducks
KXNHL-27-ANA
Cluster 13
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Buffalo Sabres
KXNHL-27-BUF
Cluster 14
Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals
Will Edmonton Oilers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals?: Edmonton Oilers
KXNHL-27-EDM
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that the Montréal Canadiens will win the Stanley Cup in the 2025-26 season, currently priced at 6% based on Kalshi betting contracts. At 6%, the market is pricing the Canadiens as a significant underdog compared to top contenders like Colorado (10%) and Carolina (12%). The probability is driven primarily by team roster composition, recent playoff performance, and competitive standing within the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens would need substantial roster improvements or a breakout regular season to shift this forecast materially upward. The 2026 NHL playoffs will definitively resolve this contract when the Stanley Cup Finals conclude in June 2026.
- ›Montréal finished 2024-25 season outside playoff positions or in lower playoff seeds based on recent trajectory, affecting perceived championship depth
- ›The Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Panthers are all priced 10-13 cents, suggesting the market views them as 2-3x more likely Stanley Cup winners than the Canadiens
- ›Net roster turnover, trade deadline acquisitions, and injury status of core players through the 2025-26 regular season will measurably affect playoff qualification and Finals odds
- ›Historical playoff performance: teams seeded 6th or lower in their conference face compounding elimination probability through multiple rounds
- ›Eastern Conference competitive density means the Canadiens must outperform established contenders in head-to-head matchups and divisional races
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 2d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 3d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 4d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 4d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.