SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 11·refreshed just now·Closes Jun 30, 2029 · 1038d

Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2025-26 Stanley Cup Finals

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 11 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

5%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

5%

11 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$4K

11 contracts

Closes

Jun 30, 2029

1038 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 11% (21 days, 21 points)Aggregate: 11% on 2026-08-26
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 21d

Bracket families

11 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$3K

Cluster 2

Will New Jersey Devils win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$434

Cluster 3

Will San Jose Sharks win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$167

Cluster 4

Will Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$102

Cluster 5

Will Minnesota Wild win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$78

Cluster 6

Will Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$55

Cluster 7

Will Colorado Avalanche win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$19

Cluster 8

Will Buffalo Sabres win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Montréal Canadiens win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Dallas Stars win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup® Finals

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that the Montréal Canadiens will win the Stanley Cup in the 2025-26 season, currently priced at 6% based on Kalshi betting contracts. At 6%, the market is pricing the Canadiens as a significant underdog compared to top contenders like Colorado (10%) and Carolina (12%). The probability is driven primarily by team roster composition, recent playoff performance, and competitive standing within the Atlantic Division. The Canadiens would need substantial roster improvements or a breakout regular season to shift this forecast materially upward. The 2026 NHL playoffs will definitively resolve this contract when the Stanley Cup Finals conclude in June 2026.

  • Montréal finished 2024-25 season outside playoff positions or in lower playoff seeds based on recent trajectory, affecting perceived championship depth
  • The Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Panthers are all priced 10-13 cents, suggesting the market views them as 2-3x more likely Stanley Cup winners than the Canadiens
  • Net roster turnover, trade deadline acquisitions, and injury status of core players through the 2025-26 regular season will measurably affect playoff qualification and Finals odds
  • Historical playoff performance: teams seeded 6th or lower in their conference face compounding elimination probability through multiple rounds
  • Eastern Conference competitive density means the Canadiens must outperform established contenders in head-to-head matchups and divisional races

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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