Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$386
6 contracts
Closes
May 1, 2027
220 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Atlantic Division
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the Atlantic Division?: Toronto Maple Leafs
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-TOR
Cluster 2
Will the Florida Panthers win the Atlantic Division
Will the Florida Panthers win the Atlantic Division?: Florida Panthers
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-FLA
Cluster 3
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the Atlantic Division?: Buffalo Sabres
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-BUF
Cluster 4
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?: Tampa Bay Lightning
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-TB
Cluster 5
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Atlantic Division
Will the Ottawa Senators win the Atlantic Division?: Ottawa Senators
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-OTT
Cluster 6
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?: Montreal Canadiens
KXNHLATLANTIC-27-MTL
Analysis
The 14% probability represents the market's assessment that the Buffalo Sabres will finish first in the Atlantic Division for the 2026-27 season. This relatively low odds reflects the Sabres' recent competitive position compared to stronger divisional rivals, particularly the Florida Panthers (37%) and Tampa Bay Lightning (24%), who both carry significantly higher probabilities. The Sabres' chances would shift based on their offseason acquisitions, roster health heading into October, and early-season performance. The probability will begin resolving as the season progresses, with divisional standings becoming concrete in April 2027 when the regular season concludes.
- ›The Sabres carry 14% odds compared to the Panthers' 37% and Lightning's 24%, suggesting market consensus that they face stronger competition in the Atlantic Division
- ›Buffalo's recent playoff appearance history and overall win-loss record trajectory would indicate whether the team is trending toward or away from contention
- ›Early-season performance through October-November 2026 will provide evidence about whether the roster improvements or coaching changes have meaningfully closed gaps with top-tier divisional competitors
- ›Injury status of key Sabres players entering and during the season will be a critical factor, as depth determines ability to stay competitive over a full 82-game schedule
- ›Comparative offseason roster moves by Atlantic Division teams, particularly acquisitions, trades, and free agency signings, will inform whether Buffalo strengthened relative to competitors
What moved the line
- Sep 18Montreal Canadiens↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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