SimpleFunctions
4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes May 1, 2027 · 231d

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 4 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

20%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

20%

4 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$2

4 contracts

Closes

May 1, 2027

231 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 18% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 18% on 2026-09-06
Aggregate of 4 contracts · 9d

Bracket families

4 clusters across 4 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will the Dallas Stars win the Central Division

1 contract$1

Cluster 2

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Central Division

1 contract$1

Cluster 3

Will the Minnesota Wild win the Central Division

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will the Utah Mammoth win the Central Division

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 21% probability indicates that markets assess the Colorado Avalanche as an underdog to win the Central Division in the 2026-27 NHL season. The Avalanche face competition from stronger-favored teams, particularly the Minnesota Wild (23%) and Dallas Stars (17%), suggesting market participants view their roster composition or recent performance as less competitive than alternatives in the division. The probability could shift based on roster moves during the offseason, injury developments to key players, and early regular-season performance once games begin in October 2026. Major catalysts include the completion of training camps and preseason exhibitions, which typically provide indicators of team readiness and form heading into the regular season.

  • Head-to-head roster strength comparison: Analyzing salary cap allocation, recent acquisitions, and player age/performance trends relative to division rivals
  • Injury status of star players: Availability of Colorado's top-performing skaters and goaltender entering the 2026-27 season
  • Playoff history and momentum: Division winners' past performance in comparable recent seasons and playoff success
  • Trading deadline and offseason activity: Magnitude of roster changes made by Colorado versus division competitors
  • Early season win-loss record: October and November performance relative to projections once regular season games commence

What moved the line

  • Sep 5Dallas Stars3pp1720¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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