Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
13 contracts
Closes
Jul 4, 2026
56 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Caleb Malhotra be picked” vs “Will Gavin McKenna be picked”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-2-CMAL
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-3-CMAL
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-CMAL
Cluster 2
Will Gavin McKenna be picked
Cluster 3
Will Ivar Stenberg be picked
Cluster 4
Will Chase Reid be picked
Cluster 5
Will Keaton Verhoeff be picked
Cluster 6
Will Carson Carels be picked 5th in the NHL Draft
Will Carson Carels be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Carson Carels
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-CCAR
Cluster 7
Will Alberts Smits be picked 5th in the NHL Draft
Will Alberts Smits be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Alberts Smits
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-ASMI
Analysis
This market estimates an 18% chance that Chase Reid will be selected 3rd overall in the NHL Draft. The probability reflects that Reid is considered a prospect in contention for an early first-round pick, but not the consensus third choice among NHL scouts and teams. The main factors supporting this probability are Reid's current standing in various pre-draft rankings and his performance metrics relative to other top prospects. The probability could shift based on changes in Reid's play, injuries to competing prospects, or new information from team scouts. The NHL Draft itself will resolve this contract, typically held in late June, which is when the actual draft order and selections occur. Until then, the market price reflects aggregated expectations about how teams will rank Reid among the available pool of elite prospects.
- ›Chase Reid's current ranking in major pre-draft consensus boards (NHL.com, aggregated scouts) relative to other top-3 candidates
- ›Reported interest from teams picking in the 3rd position, which can shift based on pro days, interviews, and private workouts
- ›Recent performance in league play or playoff tournaments that might impact his evaluation among scouts
- ›Injury status or any off-ice factors that could affect his draft position
- ›Competitor prospects' recent performances and trajectory changes that might alter the 3rd overall selection calculus
What moved the line
- May 7Gavin McKenna↑14pp62→76¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Ivar Stenberg↑6pp49→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Chase Reid↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.