Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32K
16 contracts
Closes
Jul 4, 2026
9 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Chase Reid be picked” vs “Will Caleb Malhotra be picked”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Chase Reid be picked
Will Chase Reid be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-2-CREI
Will Chase Reid be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-3-CREI
Will Chase Reid be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-4-CREI
Will Chase Reid be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Chase Reid
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-CREI
Cluster 2
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-4-CMAL
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-3-CMAL
Will Caleb Malhotra be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Caleb Malhotra
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-CMAL
Cluster 3
Will Keaton Verhoeff be picked
Will Keaton Verhoeff be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Keaton Verhoeff
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-4-KVER
Will Keaton Verhoeff be picked 5th in the NHL Draft?: Keaton Verhoeff
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-5-KVER
Will Keaton Verhoeff be picked 3rd in the NHL Draft?: Keaton Verhoeff
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-3-KVER
Cluster 4
Will Carson Carels be picked
Cluster 5
Will Alberts Smits be picked
Cluster 6
Will Ivar Stenberg be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft
Will Ivar Stenberg be picked 2nd in the NHL Draft?: Ivar Stenberg
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-2-ISTE
Cluster 7
Will Viggo Bjorck be picked 4th in the NHL Draft
Will Viggo Bjorck be picked 4th in the NHL Draft?: Viggo Bjorck
KXNHLDRAFTPICK-26-4-VBJO
Analysis
This market estimates an 18% chance that Chase Reid will be selected 3rd overall in the NHL Draft. The probability reflects that Reid is considered a prospect in contention for an early first-round pick, but not the consensus third choice among NHL scouts and teams. The main factors supporting this probability are Reid's current standing in various pre-draft rankings and his performance metrics relative to other top prospects. The probability could shift based on changes in Reid's play, injuries to competing prospects, or new information from team scouts. The NHL Draft itself will resolve this contract, typically held in late June, which is when the actual draft order and selections occur. Until then, the market price reflects aggregated expectations about how teams will rank Reid among the available pool of elite prospects.
- ›Chase Reid's current ranking in major pre-draft consensus boards (NHL.com, aggregated scouts) relative to other top-3 candidates
- ›Reported interest from teams picking in the 3rd position, which can shift based on pro days, interviews, and private workouts
- ›Recent performance in league play or playoff tournaments that might impact his evaluation among scouts
- ›Injury status or any off-ice factors that could affect his draft position
- ›Competitor prospects' recent performances and trajectory changes that might alter the 3rd overall selection calculus
What moved the line
- Jun 24Chase Reid↓22pp27→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Viggo Bjorck↑19pp1→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Caleb Malhotra↓14pp63→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Ivar Stenberg↑13pp70→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Ivar Stenberg↑12pp58→70¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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