Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.25 million tests processed in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 72% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.2 million
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
Above 4.25 million
Spread
25pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 27, 2027
273 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4
Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.2 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.2 million
KXNTRAA-27FEBTESTS-4200000
Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.35 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.35 million
KXNTRAA-27FEBTESTS-4350000
Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.3 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.3 million
KXNTRAA-27FEBTESTS-4300000
Will Natera, Inc. report Above 4.25 million tests processed in fiscal 2026?: Above 4.25 million
KXNTRAA-27FEBTESTS-4250000
Analysis
This contract reflects market expectations that Natera will process at least 4.25 million tests during fiscal year 2026. At 46%, traders assess this outcome as less likely than the 4.2 million threshold but still plausible. The probability reflects uncertainty around Natera's test volume growth trajectory, which depends on adoption rates across their product lines—including prenatal, cancer, and transplant testing—and their ability to expand laboratory capacity and customer relationships. Key catalysts include quarterly earnings reports throughout 2026 and management guidance on annual test volumes. The pricing gradient across thresholds (71% for 4.2M, 46% for 4.25M, 21% for 4.3M) suggests markets see modest growth from current run rates as the base case, with higher volumes viewed as requiring stronger-than-expected execution or market conditions. Resolution will occur when Natera reports full fiscal 2026 results, typically in early 2027.
- ›Natera's reported test volumes in fiscal 2025 and Q1-Q2 2026 results, which establish the baseline for assessing trajectory toward 4.25 million
- ›Quarterly earnings guidance and management commentary on test volume trends across prenatal, oncology, and organ transplant segments
- ›Competitive dynamics and market share shifts in genetic testing, particularly in prenatal screening where Natera faces established competitors
- ›Laboratory capacity constraints or expansions announced by Natera that would affect processing volume ceiling
- ›Healthcare reimbursement changes or policy shifts affecting test demand or Natera's addressable market during 2026
What moved the line
- Aug 26Above 4.2 million↓20pp72→52¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 4.2 million↑19pp53→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Above 4.25 million↓13pp47→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 4.25 million↑10pp28→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 4.25 million↑9pp38→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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