Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 47 million
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 48 million
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 47 million?: Above 47 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T47
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 54 million?: Above 54 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T54
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 53 million?: Above 53 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T53
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 52 million?: Above 52 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T52
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 51 million?: Above 51 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T51
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 50 million?: Above 50 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T50
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 49 million?: Above 49 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T49
Will Nevada’s statewide visitor volume for 2026 be above 48 million?: Above 48 million
KXNVVISIT-27JUN30-T48
Analysis
The market assigns 94% probability that Nevada will exceed 48 million visitors in 2026, with 86% confidence it surpasses 49 million. This reflects expectations about tourism recovery and growth in the state's primary economic driver. The current probability level suggests consensus that visitor volumes will remain robust, though there is meaningful uncertainty about whether the state reaches the higher thresholds (59% for 50 million, 34% for 51 million). Key factors shaping these estimates include Las Vegas convention attendance trends, national travel spending patterns, and any disruptions to gaming or hospitality sectors. Nevada tourism data for 2026 will be officially released in early 2027, at which point the actual visitor count will resolve the uncertainty. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent market activity on these contracts.
- ›Las Vegas gaming revenue and hotel occupancy rates through 2026 will indicate whether convention and leisure travel meet historical baseline expectations
- ›National discretionary spending and airfare costs in 2026 will affect whether out-of-state visitors travel to Nevada at sufficient volume
- ›Any significant disruption to major Las Vegas properties, conventions, or events would reduce the likelihood of achieving target visitor volumes
- ›The gap between 48M and 49M visitors represents approximately 1% variance, yet the market prices them 8 percentage points apart, suggesting traders view the 49M threshold as a material step upward
- ›Official Nevada Tourism Commission visitor count release (expected Q1 2027) will provide definitive resolution based on documented visitation metrics
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above 48 million↓52pp93→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 51 million↑3pp34→37¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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