Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26
Leader sits at 71% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 64%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.50
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
64¢
Above $0.50
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$69
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
37 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26?: Above $0.75
KXRTX5090WS-26JUN26-0.750
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26?: Above $1.00
KXRTX5090WS-26JUN26-1.000
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.25 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26?: Above $1.25
KXRTX5090WS-26JUN26-1.250
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jun 26?: Above $0.50
KXRTX5090WS-26JUN26-0.500
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $1.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $1.50
KXRTX5090WS-26JUL31-1.500
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.75 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $0.75
KXRTX5090WS-26JUL31-0.750
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 31?: Above $0.50
KXRTX5090WS-26JUL31-0.500
Will the NVIDIA RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.5 at 4 PM ET on Jul 03?: Above $0.50
KXRTX5090WS-26JUL03-0.500
Analysis
This contract measures whether NVIDIA's RTX 5090 GPU will cost less than $0.50 per hour to rent for compute tasks on June 26 at 4 PM ET. The 3% probability reflects skepticism that pricing will be this low. Current RTX 5090 pricing in the market appears substantially higher than this threshold, which would require either significant price declines, increased supply reducing rental costs, or a shift in how compute-per-hour is calculated or measured. The main drivers moving this probability would be actual rental rate data from major cloud providers closer to the resolution date and any significant changes in GPU supply or demand dynamics. The June 26 resolution date itself serves as the critical event—real-time pricing data on that date will determine the outcome, making pre-resolution speculation dependent on tracking near-term pricing trends from services like Lambda Labs, Vast.ai, or major cloud platforms.
- ›Current RTX 5090 rental rates from established compute platforms are materially above $0.50/hour, creating a structural headwind for the 'above $0.50' outcome
- ›Supply volume and competitive pricing pressure in the weeks before June 26 could compress rates downward, though dramatic declines of 50%+ would be required
- ›The specific measurement methodology and source for the 4 PM ET June 26 price snapshot is critical—ambiguity here could introduce interpretation risk
- ›Market liquidity on this contract remains very low ($0 24h volume on Kalshi), suggesting limited conviction or information among traders
- ›A seven-week window allows for sufficient time to observe actual pricing trends, but near-term market data will be the primary driver of probability movement
What moved the line
- Jun 17Above $0.50↑92pp2→94¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Above $0.50↑76pp1→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above $0.50↓65pp94→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above $0.75↑12pp2→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above $1.00↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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