Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 81%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $3,800
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
81¢
Above $3,900
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$925
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
157 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,800?: Above $3,800
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T3800
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,000?: Above $4,000
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4000
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,500?: Above $4,500
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4500
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,400?: Above $4,400
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4400
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,300?: Above $4,300
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4300
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,200?: Above $4,200
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4200
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $4,100?: Above $4,100
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T4100
Will New York City’s median asking rent for December 2026 be above $3,900?: Above $3,900
KXNYCASKRENT-27JAN31-T3900
Analysis
The market assigns a 93% probability that New York City's median asking rent will exceed $3,800 in December 2026, reflecting strong confidence in continued rent elevation. This assessment is grounded in recent rental trends showing sustained upward pressure across Manhattan and outer boroughs, though the declining probabilities for higher thresholds ($3,900 at 84%, $4,000 at 56%) suggest meaningful uncertainty about how much further rents will rise. The outcome depends primarily on housing supply dynamics—whether new construction moderates vacancy rates—and demand factors including migration patterns and employment growth in finance and tech sectors. December 2026 data from appraisal firms like StreetEasy and Zillow, typically released in early 2027, will definitively resolve this question. Current low trading volume indicates limited recent position changes among market participants.
- ›NYC median asking rent reached approximately $3,600–$3,700 as of mid-2026; a $100–$200 additional increase over 4 months is required to hit $3,800
- ›New housing completions in NYC and vacancy rate changes will directly affect supply-side pressure on rents
- ›Employment growth or contraction in high-wage sectors and migration inflows/outflows over Q3–Q4 2026 will shape tenant demand
- ›The probability ladder shows material doubt above $3,800: $3,900 drops to 84%, and $4,000 to 56%, indicating consensus expects modest but not dramatic further growth
- ›December rent data from StreetEasy, Zillow, or similar sources—the official resolution mechanism—will be published in early 2027
What moved the line
- Aug 20Above $4,000↑27pp30→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above $3,900↑22pp44→66¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above $4,100↑21pp22→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above $4,100↓21pp43→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Above $3,900↑20pp66→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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