Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs
Leader sits at 95% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 8.4 million TEUs
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 8.5 million TEUs
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$16K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.0 million TEUs?: Above 9.0 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T9.0
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.6 million TEUs?: Above 8.6 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.6
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.8 million TEUs?: Above 8.8 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.8
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.9 million TEUs?: Above 8.9 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.9
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.7 million TEUs?: Above 8.7 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.7
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.1 million TEUs?: Above 9.1 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T9.1
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.4 million TEUs?: Above 8.4 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.4
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 9.2 million TEUs?: Above 9.2 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T9.2
Will Port of New York and New Jersey total TEUs handled in 2026 be above 8.5 million TEUs?: Above 8.5 million TEUs
KXNYNJPORTTEU-27FEB28-T8.5
Analysis
This probability reflects market participants' assessment that the Port of New York and New Jersey will handle above 8.6 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2026. The current 74% probability suggests broad confidence in reaching this threshold, which represents steady container traffic at or slightly above recent operational levels. The main drivers of this view are (1) baseline demand from East Coast imports and regional trade patterns, and (2) the port's operational capacity and labor agreements following recent labor negotiations. The resolution depends on final 2026 container volumes, typically reported in early 2027. Key uncertainty around more aggressive thresholds—only 37% above 8.8 million TEUs—indicates skepticism about exceptional growth. Downward pressure could come from macroeconomic contraction, shifts in supply chains away from East Coast ports, or operational disruptions. Upward pressure would require sustained or growing import demand throughout 2026.
- ›East Coast container import demand trends through 2026, particularly from consumer goods and industrial supply chains
- ›Port labor availability and strike-related disruptions following the 2024-2025 labor agreement negotiations
- ›Competitive dynamics with other U.S. ports (Charleston, Savannah, Los Angeles) affecting cargo routing decisions
- ›The difference between the 8.6M and 8.8M probabilities (74% vs. 37%) indicates market skepticism about volume growth beyond modest baselines
- ›Historical 2025 throughput figures and stated operator capacity utilization rates heading into year-end
What moved the line
- Aug 19Above 8.8 million TEUs↑13pp24→37¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 9.0 million TEUs↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 8.8 million TEUs↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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