SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now

Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026

Leader sits at 85% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

85%

At least 180

runner-up 78¢leader 85¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

78¢

At least 185

Spread

7pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAt least 180: 82% (6 days, 5 points)At least 180: 82% on 2026-08-23At least 185: 73% (6 days, 4 points)At least 185: 73% on 2026-08-22At least 190: 66% (6 days, 5 points)At least 190: 66% on 2026-08-23
At least 18082¢At least 18573¢At least 19066¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This predicts whether Pennsylvania will have at least 190 data centers registered or operational by year-end 2026. The 92% probability on the 180+ threshold and 83% on the 190+ threshold suggests traders expect strong growth in the state's data center capacity. The gap between these probabilities indicates modest uncertainty about reaching exactly 190 rather than whether significant expansion occurs. Growth drivers include regional demand for cloud infrastructure, favorable electricity pricing, and existing facility expansions; headwinds include construction timelines, permit delays, and shifting location preferences. Resolution depends on official counts from industry databases and state business records, likely finalized in early 2027.

  • Current baseline: Pennsylvania's approximate 2024-2025 data center count and announced projects in active development or pre-construction phases
  • Construction pipeline: Number of facilities with completed permitting, under construction, or with signed leases targeting 2026 completion
  • Regional competition: Capacity growth in neighboring states (New York, Virginia) affecting investment flows and builder decisions
  • Electricity and grid availability: Constraints or expansions in supply that directly enable or delay facility deployment
  • Definitional variance: Whether count includes co-location centers, edge nodes, and backup facilities—different sources may report different totals

What moved the line

  • Aug 19At least 18052pp4193¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20At least 18033pp9360¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20At least 18529pp3968¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20At least 19026pp3662¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22At least 18020pp6080¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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