Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026
Leader sits at 85% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 180
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
At least 185
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Pennsylvania have at least
Will Pennsylvania have at least 205 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 205
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T205
Will Pennsylvania have at least 190 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 190
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T190
Will Pennsylvania have at least 185 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 185
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T185
Will Pennsylvania have at least 195 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 195
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T195
Will Pennsylvania have at least 180 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 180
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T180
Will Pennsylvania have at least 200 data centers listed in 2026?: At least 200
KXPADATACENTERS-26DEC31-T200
Analysis
This predicts whether Pennsylvania will have at least 190 data centers registered or operational by year-end 2026. The 92% probability on the 180+ threshold and 83% on the 190+ threshold suggests traders expect strong growth in the state's data center capacity. The gap between these probabilities indicates modest uncertainty about reaching exactly 190 rather than whether significant expansion occurs. Growth drivers include regional demand for cloud infrastructure, favorable electricity pricing, and existing facility expansions; headwinds include construction timelines, permit delays, and shifting location preferences. Resolution depends on official counts from industry databases and state business records, likely finalized in early 2027.
- ›Current baseline: Pennsylvania's approximate 2024-2025 data center count and announced projects in active development or pre-construction phases
- ›Construction pipeline: Number of facilities with completed permitting, under construction, or with signed leases targeting 2026 completion
- ›Regional competition: Capacity growth in neighboring states (New York, Virginia) affecting investment flows and builder decisions
- ›Electricity and grid availability: Constraints or expansions in supply that directly enable or delay facility deployment
- ›Definitional variance: Whether count includes co-location centers, edge nodes, and backup facilities—different sources may report different totals
What moved the line
- Aug 19At least 180↑52pp41→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least 180↓33pp93→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least 185↑29pp39→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least 190↑26pp36→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 180↑20pp60→80¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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