Will there be more than 250 transit calls through the Panama Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract reflects a 91% probability that the Panama Canal will record more than 175 transit calls during the week of July 27–August 2, 2026. The high confidence suggests market participants expect normal-to-elevated Canal traffic during this period, though the steep probability drop at higher thresholds (19% for 225+ transits, 6% for 250+) indicates uncertainty about whether traffic will spike significantly. Canal transits are driven by global shipping demand, vessel scheduling, and any operational constraints at the Canal itself. The resolution will occur when the Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit data for the specified week, confirming the exact number of transits. Key uncertainties include seasonal shipping patterns, whether any maintenance closures occur, and broader economic shipping trends in late July 2026.

• ›Historical weekly transit averages typically range 35–40 per day (245–280 per week), suggesting the 175-transit threshold is well below recent norms but above crisis-level lows
• ›The sharp probability gradient across thresholds (91% → 65% → 19% → 6%) indicates market consensus clusters around 175–225 transits rather than extreme outcomes
• ›Panama Canal Authority publishes official transit counts weekly; this contract resolves against published data, making it verifiable and eliminating interpretation risk
• ›Any unscheduled maintenance, drought reducing water levels, or major geopolitical disruption could suppress transit volume significantly below historical averages
• ›Seasonal patterns in Q3 (late summer) and upcoming published data for the week of July 27–August 2 will provide the factual basis for resolution

What moved the line

• Aug 11Above 175↓38pp93→55¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 11Above 200↓28pp71→43¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 11Above 225↓11pp21→10¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick leave the House before the midtermslast 8% · 0d
• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Senate investigators publicly release previously nonpublic substantive communications or records obtained from the copy of Anthony Fauci’s iPhone transferred by HHS to the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations before Sep 1, 2026last 48% · 1d
• Who will be Trump's next Attorney Generallast 97% · 3d
• Will the number of Cabinet nominees confirmed by the Senate be exactly 3 after Issuance and before the 2026 August recesslast 7% · 3d
• Will it be reported by U.S. Senate that the U.S. Senate adjourns from substantive floor business for its August 2026 recess before Aug 9, 2026last 94% · 3d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds