Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$132
3 contracts
Closes
Jan 22, 2027
123 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Championship
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Championship?: Luke Littler
KXPDCDARTS-27-LLIT
Cluster 2
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Championship
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Championship?: Luke Humphries
KXPDCDARTS-27-LHUM
Cluster 3
Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Championship
Will Michael van Gerwen win the PDC World Championship?: Michael van Gerwen
KXPDCDARTS-27-MVAN
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects market expectations that Gian van Veen will win the PDC World Championship in the upcoming season. Van Veen has emerged as a competitive player in professional darts but faces stiff competition from Luke Littler (37%) and Luke Humphries (10%), among others. His probability is shaped by his recent tournament performance, ranking position, and consistency against top-ranked opponents. The PDC World Championship, typically held in December-January, serves as the sport's marquee event where rankings and form are tested against the full field. Changes to this probability would track with van Veen's performance in European Tour events and Players Championship tournaments leading up to the World Championship, as well as any significant injuries or form shifts among top competitors. The next major update point would come following major qualifying events in autumn 2026.
- ›Van Veen's current PDC ranking and seeding for the World Championship draw relative to top seeds like Littler and Humphries
- ›His performance record in televised majors and European Tour events in 2026 compared to historical consistency
- ›Average first-round opponent difficulty based on World Championship draw structure when seedings are finalized
- ›Head-to-head records and recent results against the probabilistic favorites in the market
- ›Injury status and playing schedule continuity in the months immediately preceding the December-January championship
What moved the line
- Sep 19Luke Littler↑4pp54→58¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Michael van Gerwen↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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