Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$480
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 22, 2027
208 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Championship
Will Luke Littler win the PDC World Championship?: Luke Littler
KXPDCDARTS-27-LLIT
Cluster 2
Will Dirk van Duijvenbode win the PDC World Championship
Will Dirk van Duijvenbode win the PDC World Championship?: Dirk van Duijvenbode
KXPDCDARTS-27-DVAN
Cluster 3
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Championship
Will Gian van Veen win the PDC World Championship?: Gian van Veen
KXPDCDARTS-27-GVAN
Cluster 4
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Championship
Will Luke Humphries win the PDC World Championship?: Luke Humphries
KXPDCDARTS-27-LHUM
Analysis
This 17% probability reflects market expectations that Gian van Veen will win the PDC World Championship in the upcoming season. Van Veen has emerged as a competitive player in professional darts but faces stiff competition from Luke Littler (37%) and Luke Humphries (10%), among others. His probability is shaped by his recent tournament performance, ranking position, and consistency against top-ranked opponents. The PDC World Championship, typically held in December-January, serves as the sport's marquee event where rankings and form are tested against the full field. Changes to this probability would track with van Veen's performance in European Tour events and Players Championship tournaments leading up to the World Championship, as well as any significant injuries or form shifts among top competitors. The next major update point would come following major qualifying events in autumn 2026.
- ›Van Veen's current PDC ranking and seeding for the World Championship draw relative to top seeds like Littler and Humphries
- ›His performance record in televised majors and European Tour events in 2026 compared to historical consistency
- ›Average first-round opponent difficulty based on World Championship draw structure when seedings are finalized
- ›Head-to-head records and recent results against the probabilistic favorites in the market
- ›Injury status and playing schedule continuity in the months immediately preceding the December-January championship
What moved the line
- Jun 27Luke Humphries↑11pp12→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Luke Littler↓9pp48→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 26Luke Littler↑8pp41→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 27Luke Littler↓8pp49→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Luke Littler↑7pp46→53¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Nithya Raman beat Spencer Pratt by 1.0 to 2.0 points in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primarylast 97% · 0d
- What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 2d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 4d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 5d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.