SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·16 source contracts·Kalshi 16·refreshed just now·Closes Feb 15, 2027 · 192d

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027

Leader sits at 33% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

33%

Justin Bieber

runner-up 30¢leader 33¢

Outcomes

16

winner-take-all

Runner-up

30¢

Miley Cyrus

Spread

3pp

contested

24h volume

$299

thin orderbook

Closes

Feb 15, 2027

192 days

Venue

Kalshi

16 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayJustin Bieber: 32% (13 days, 12 points)Justin Bieber: 32% on 2026-08-04Miley Cyrus: 28% (13 days, 6 points)Miley Cyrus: 28% on 2026-08-06Beyoncé: 12% (13 days, 5 points)Beyoncé: 12% on 2026-07-30
Justin Bieber32¢Miley Cyrus28¢Beyoncé12¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 13d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027

16 contracts$299
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Miley Cyrus

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-MIL

30¢1pp$205K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Justin Bieber

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-JUS

33¢1pp$49K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Post Malone

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-POS

6¢+1pp$45K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Ed Sheeran

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-ED

7¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Eagles

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-EAG

5¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Dua Lipa

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-DUA

10¢2pp$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Drake

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-DRA

7¢+2pp$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Chappell Roan

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-CHAP

6¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: BTS

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BTS

4¢+2pp$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Bryson Tiller

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BRY

8¢89pp$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Billie Eilish

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BIL

4¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Beyoncé

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BEY

12¢+5pp$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Benson Boone

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BEN

7¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Bad Bunny

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BAD

9¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Backstreet Boys

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BAC

8¢$0K

Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Ariana Grande

KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-ARI

8¢$0K

Analysis

The 50% probability reflects traders' assessment that Jay-Z is the current favorite to perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship halftime show on February 14. This estimate is driven by his cultural prominence, past Super Bowl involvement, and lack of recent performance commitments that would conflict with the date. The probability would shift significantly if the NFL officially announces the performer, if Jay-Z publicly declines or commits to a conflicting engagement, or if competing artists secure high-profile confirmations that signal they are unavailable. The halftime show is typically announced 2-4 weeks before the event, making the announcement window in late January or early February 2027 the key catalyst that would resolve this market. Until then, pricing reflects uncertainty among a relatively small contract volume with minimal recent trading activity.

  • Jay-Z's pricing at 50% is substantially higher than the next tier of artists (Beyoncé at 10%, Ariana Grande at 8%), indicating concentrated trader conviction rather than broad-based consensus
  • Trading volume is zero across all major contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited new information flow and prices that may not reflect recent developments in entertainment or performer scheduling
  • The NFL typically announces halftime performers 2-4 weeks before the championship game, meaning the resolution date is approximately 6 months away with no scheduled announcements currently visible
  • Jay-Z's involvement with Roc Nation (an entertainment management company) and past association with NFL events provide a plausible basis for the elevated probability, but no public statements confirm his availability or interest
  • Runner-up at 24% probability indicates material uncertainty; if that contract represents a specific alternative performer, it suggests traders assign meaningful odds to at least one competing outcome

What moved the line

  • Aug 1Justin Bieber5pp3136¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 1Miley Cyrus3pp2629¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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