Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027
Leader sits at 65% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 63%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Justin Bieber
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
63¢
Bad Bunny
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$225
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 15, 2027
146 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: JAY-Z
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-JAY
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Justin Bieber
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-JUS
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Miley Cyrus
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-MIL
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Taylor Swift
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-TAY
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Kanye West / Ye
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-KAN
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-SAB
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Future
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-FUT
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Drake
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-DRA
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Tyler, The Creator
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-TYL
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Lil Wayne
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-WAY
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Dua Lipa
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-DUA
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Chris Brown
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-CHR
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: BTS
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BTS
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Bruno Mars
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BRU
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Post Malone
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-POS
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Billie Eilish
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BIL
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Eminem
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-EMI
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Ed Sheeran
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-ED
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Ariana Grande
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-ARI
Who will perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship Halftime Show scheduled for Sunday, February 14, 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXPERFORMSUPERBOWL-27B-BAD
Analysis
The 50% probability reflects traders' assessment that Jay-Z is the current favorite to perform at the 2027 Pro Football Championship halftime show on February 14. This estimate is driven by his cultural prominence, past Super Bowl involvement, and lack of recent performance commitments that would conflict with the date. The probability would shift significantly if the NFL officially announces the performer, if Jay-Z publicly declines or commits to a conflicting engagement, or if competing artists secure high-profile confirmations that signal they are unavailable. The halftime show is typically announced 2-4 weeks before the event, making the announcement window in late January or early February 2027 the key catalyst that would resolve this market. Until then, pricing reflects uncertainty among a relatively small contract volume with minimal recent trading activity.
- ›Jay-Z's pricing at 50% is substantially higher than the next tier of artists (Beyoncé at 10%, Ariana Grande at 8%), indicating concentrated trader conviction rather than broad-based consensus
- ›Trading volume is zero across all major contracts in the past 24 hours, suggesting limited new information flow and prices that may not reflect recent developments in entertainment or performer scheduling
- ›The NFL typically announces halftime performers 2-4 weeks before the championship game, meaning the resolution date is approximately 6 months away with no scheduled announcements currently visible
- ›Jay-Z's involvement with Roc Nation (an entertainment management company) and past association with NFL events provide a plausible basis for the elevated probability, but no public statements confirm his availability or interest
- ›Runner-up at 24% probability indicates material uncertainty; if that contract represents a specific alternative performer, it suggests traders assign meaningful odds to at least one competing outcome
What moved the line
- Sep 17Bad Bunny↑58pp5→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Justin Bieber↑37pp26→63¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Tyler, The Creator↑31pp4→35¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Drake↑19pp6→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Miley Cyrus↓16pp62→46¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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