SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2036 · 3459d

How many golf major championships will Jackson Koivun win before 2036

Leader sits at 6% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 5%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

6%

1+ golf major championship wins

runner-up 5¢leader 6¢

Outcomes

4

winner-take-all

Runner-up

1+ golf major championship w

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2036

3459 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday1+ golf major championship wins: 6% (10 days, 9 points)1+ golf major championship wins: 6% on 2026-07-101+ golf major championship wins: 5% (10 days, 6 points)1+ golf major championship wins: 5% on 2026-07-102+ golf major championship wins: 4% (10 days, 6 points)2+ golf major championship wins: 4% on 2026-07-10
1+ golf major championship wins6¢1+ golf major championship wins5¢2+ golf major championship wins4¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 10d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This market estimates a 5% probability that Jackson Koivun will win at least one major golf championship in the next decade. Koivun is a professional golfer whose odds reflect the extreme difficulty of winning major tournaments—only a small fraction of players on tour ever achieve this milestone. The current pricing suggests skepticism about whether he will reach the professional level needed to consistently compete for majors, or if he does, whether he'll breakthrough against the world's elite players. Uncertainty would be resolved through his performance trajectory on professional tours, his ability to compete in major championship fields, and ultimately whether he secures at least one title before 2036. Major championships occur annually across four events (Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, and PGA Championship).

  • Jackson Koivun's current playing status and tour ranking relative to major-championship-qualifying thresholds
  • Historical base rate of PGA Tour players ever winning a major championship (approximately 2-3% of players who make the tour)
  • Koivun's performance record in high-level amateur and professional competitions, including major championship invitational access
  • Competitive depth in professional golf and the concentration of major wins among elite-tier players
  • Time remaining until 2036 and whether Koivun remains active as a professional golfer through the period

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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