Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$490
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2027
376 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Team USA” vs “Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Team USA
Cluster 2
Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup
Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup?: Team Europe
KXPGARYDER-RC27-EUR
Analysis
This probability indicates that markets currently assess Team Europe as a 32% favorite to win the upcoming Ryder Cup, compared to a 66% probability for Team USA and a 2% chance of a tie. The disparity reflects Team USA's recent dominance in the competition, having won four of the last five Ryder Cups. Team Europe's probability depends on factors including current world golf rankings of both teams' rosters, recent performance in major tournaments, and home-course advantage if the venue favors European playing conditions. The Ryder Cup itself, scheduled for September 2026, serves as the key catalyst that will definitively resolve this market. Until then, movements in the probability may reflect roster announcements, captain selections, injuries to key players, or shifts in momentum from intervening PGA Tour and European tour events.
- ›Team USA has won 4 of the last 5 Ryder Cups (2016 loss to Europe, wins in 2018, 2021, 2023, 2025)
- ›Current world ranking distribution of eligible players on each team roster and recent major championship performance
- ›2026 Ryder Cup venue location and whether course conditions historically favor American or European playing styles
- ›Player availability and injury status for both teams as September 2026 approaches
- ›Captaincy selections and recent team chemistry based on preceding tour events in summer 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 17Team USA↑4pp38→42¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Team USA↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Team USA↑3pp39→42¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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