Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$36
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 3, 2027
434 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Team USA” vs “Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Team USA
Cluster 2
Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup
Will Team Europe win the Ryder Cup?: Team Europe
KXPGARYDER-RC27-EUR
Analysis
This probability indicates a 32% chance that Team Europe will win the 2026 Ryder Cup golf competition. The current odds reflect historical patterns where Team Europe has been competitive but not favored against Team USA in recent tournaments. The probability would shift based on team composition announcements, player form leading into the event, and course conditions. The Ryder Cup is scheduled for late September 2026, which will serve as the definitive resolution point. Current markets show modest trading volume, suggesting limited price discovery at this time before team rosters and closer proximity to competition.
- ›Team Europe's historical win rate in the Ryder Cup since 2000 (approximately 50% including ties)
- ›Team USA's home-course advantage in 2026 and its performance correlation in host tournaments
- ›Injury status and current form of key European players as tournament approaches
- ›European team captain selection and player eligibility determination, typically finalized by August 2026
- ›Relative strength of European professional tours in generating qualifying points compared to competitive periods
What moved the line
- Jul 21Team USA↓13pp46→33¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Team USA↑4pp42→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Team Europe↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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