SimpleFunctions
2 source contracts·Kalshi 2·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 4, 2026 · 84d

Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 2 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

6%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

6%

2 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$23

2 contracts

Closes

Oct 4, 2026

84 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 7% (20 days, 20 points)Aggregate: 7% on 2026-07-12
Aggregate of 2 contracts · 20d

Bracket families

2 clusters across 2 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Utah Archers win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship

1 contract$17

Cluster 2

Will California Redwoods win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship

1 contract$6

Analysis

Denver Outlaws have a 13% implied probability of winning the 2026 PLL Championship, meaning the market assigns them roughly 1-in-8 odds. This places them fourth among tracked teams, behind Philadelphia Waterdogs (16%), New York Atlas (18%), and significantly ahead of Utah Archers (4%). The Outlaws' positioning likely reflects their roster strength and historical performance relative to competitors, though the championship outcome depends heavily on regular-season results through the summer, playoff seeding, and match-up dynamics in August's playoff tournament. The low trading volume on this contract ($0 in 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Final resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 PLL season when the championship winner is determined.

  • Denver's regular-season win-loss record and playoff seeding position, which directly determine tournament matchups and path to the championship
  • Head-to-head performance against Philadelphia (16% odds) and New York (18% odds) in regular-season contests, signaling relative team strength
  • Injury status of key Outlaws players through the season, particularly defenders and the starting goaltender, affecting roster availability for playoffs
  • The complete PLL playoff bracket structure and tournament format, which determines whether Denver faces higher-seeded favorites early or has a favorable path
  • Comparative odds movement for other PLL teams, indicating whether market confidence is shifting toward or away from Denver relative to the field

What moved the line

  • Jul 7California Redwoods10pp212¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 8California Redwoods5pp127¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 10California Redwoods5pp72¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 2 contracts (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.