Will Denver Outlaws win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$23
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
84 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Utah Archers win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship
Will Utah Archers win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: Utah Archers
KXPLL-26-UTA
Cluster 2
Will California Redwoods win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship
Will California Redwoods win the 2026 Premier Lacrosse League (PLL) Championship?: California Redwoods
KXPLL-26-CAL
Analysis
Denver Outlaws have a 13% implied probability of winning the 2026 PLL Championship, meaning the market assigns them roughly 1-in-8 odds. This places them fourth among tracked teams, behind Philadelphia Waterdogs (16%), New York Atlas (18%), and significantly ahead of Utah Archers (4%). The Outlaws' positioning likely reflects their roster strength and historical performance relative to competitors, though the championship outcome depends heavily on regular-season results through the summer, playoff seeding, and match-up dynamics in August's playoff tournament. The low trading volume on this contract ($0 in 24 hours) suggests limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads. Final resolution occurs at the end of the 2026 PLL season when the championship winner is determined.
- ›Denver's regular-season win-loss record and playoff seeding position, which directly determine tournament matchups and path to the championship
- ›Head-to-head performance against Philadelphia (16% odds) and New York (18% odds) in regular-season contests, signaling relative team strength
- ›Injury status of key Outlaws players through the season, particularly defenders and the starting goaltender, affecting roster availability for playoffs
- ›The complete PLL playoff bracket structure and tournament format, which determines whether Denver faces higher-seeded favorites early or has a favorable path
- ›Comparative odds movement for other PLL teams, indicating whether market confidence is shifting toward or away from Denver relative to the field
What moved the line
- Jul 7California Redwoods↑10pp2→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8California Redwoods↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10California Redwoods↓5pp7→2¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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