Will Philip Morris International Inc report above 185 million zyn us shipment volume in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 160 million
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Above 165 million
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$72
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 20, 2026
103 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 190 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 190 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-190000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 160 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 160 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-160000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 200 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 200 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-200000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 195 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 195 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-195000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 185 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 185 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-185000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 180 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 180 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-180000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 175 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 175 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-175000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 170 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 170 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-170000000
Will Philip Morris International Inc report Above 165 million zyn us shipment volume in Q2 2026?: Above 165 million
KXPM-26JULZYNSHIP-165000000
What moved the line
- May 3Above 190 million↑4pp45→49¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 165 million↑4pp89→93¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 185 million↑4pp57→61¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 190 million↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Above 170 million↑3pp84→87¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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