Will Philip Morris International Inc report above 185 million zyn us shipment volume in Q1 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This prediction reflects an expectation that Philip Morris International will report Zyn US shipment volumes above 185 million units in Q1 2026, with the 93% probability indicating market participants view this outcome as highly likely. The assessment rests primarily on Zyn's demonstrated growth trajectory in the US nicotine pouch market and PMI's expansion capacity. The probability could shift downward if market saturation emerges faster than expected or if competitive pressure from other manufacturers intensifies. Resolution depends entirely on PMI's official Q1 2026 financial reporting or shipment disclosures, typically released in late April or early May 2026. The contract prices across different volume thresholds (ranging from 160 million to 195 million units) suggest meaningful uncertainty about the upper bound despite confidence in baseline performance.

• ›Zyn's documented market share growth and category expansion in US nicotine pouches through 2024-2025
• ›PMI's capital investments and production capacity increases specifically for Zyn US operations
• ›Competitive intensity from alternative nicotine pouch brands and potential cannibalization of PMI's own tobacco products
• ›Regulatory changes or restrictions on nicotine pouch marketing and distribution that could constrain growth
• ›Actual Q1 2026 shipment data release by PMI (expected April-May 2026) will definitively resolve the contract

What moved the line

• Jun 17Above 165 million↓4pp90→86¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Above 190 million↓3pp60→57¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Above 195 million↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Above 170 million↓3pp87→84¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 16Above 185 million↑3pp65→68¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 1d
• Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 2d
• Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 2d
• Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 2d
• Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 2d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds