2026 Pro Football Draft: 3rd Overall Pick
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$47K
20 contracts
Top contract
19¢
$39K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft” vs “Will New York J”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Cluster 2
Will New York J
Cluster 3
Pro basketball top
Cluster 4
Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026
Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Mike Vrabel
KXCOACHOUTNFL-26SEP01-MVRA
Cluster 5
Will Utah win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Utah win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Utah
KXNBATOPPICK-26-UTA
Cluster 6
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Las Vegas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV
Cluster 7
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Atlanta
KXNBATOPPICK-26-ATL
Cluster 8
Will Chicago win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Chicago win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Chicago
KXNBATOPPICK-26-CHI
Cluster 9
Will Washington win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Washington win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Washington
KXNBATOPPICK-26-WAS
Cluster 10
Will Brooklyn win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Brooklyn win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Brooklyn
KXNBATOPPICK-26-BKN
Cluster 11
Will Indiana win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery
Will Indiana win the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft Lottery?: Indiana
KXNBATOPPICK-26-IND
Cluster 12
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 13
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Miami
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIA
Cluster 14
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 15
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 16
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
What moved the line
- Apr 27Mike Vrabel↓6pp31→25¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 29Mike Vrabel↑5pp22→27¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Mike Vrabel↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Jeremiah Smith↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 26Mike Vrabel↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 8 min ago.