2026 Pro Football Draft: 3rd Overall Pick
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
11 contracts
Closes
May 22, 2027
285 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft” vs “Will New York J”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Jeremiah Smith
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSMI
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Julian Sayin
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-JSAY
Who will be picked 1st in the Pro Football Draft?: Drew Mestemaker
KXNFLDRAFTPICK-27-1-DMES
Cluster 2
Will New York J
Cluster 3
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Miami
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-MIA
Cluster 4
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers
Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers?: Las Vegas
KXNFLPLAYOFF-27-LV
Cluster 5
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Arizona make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Arizona
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-ARI
Cluster 6
Will The winning team of the 2026 Pro football Championship visit The White House before Dec 31, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Miami make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Miami
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-MIA
Cluster 8
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft
Will Cleveland make the 1st Overall Pick in the 2027 Pro Football Draft?: Cleveland
KXNFLDRAFT1ST-27-CLE
Analysis
This 9% probability reflects the market's assessment that a specific player will be selected with the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The current odds suggest markets see this outcome as unlikely relative to other possibilities at that draft position. The probability is driven by uncertainty around which quarterback or skill-position player teams with the top three picks will prioritize, and how pre-draft evaluations compare across available prospects. The draft itself, scheduled for late April 2026, will definitively resolve this contract when the selection is officially announced. Until then, changes in player performance during the 2025 college season, injury reports, and team-specific quarterback needs will shift expectations about who lands at pick three.
- ›Team holding the 3rd pick and their stated positional needs entering draft season
- ›Performance and health status of top quarterback and non-QB prospects during 2025 college football season
- ›Whether teams holding picks 1-2 select quarterbacks, creating potential positional scarcity at pick 3
- ›Pre-draft combine results and individual workouts that influence evaluations of draft prospects
- ›Trade activity on draft day involving teams positioned to move in or out of the 3rd overall slot
What moved the line
- Aug 5Arizona↓8pp33→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Miami↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Cleveland↓7pp13→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Miami↑4pp9→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 9New York J↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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