Winner-take-all · 4 outcomes4 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 1, 2026 · 23d

Rain in Chicago in Apr 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 90% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

90%

Above 1 inch

0¢runner-up 62¢leader 90¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

62¢

Above 2 inches

Spread

28pp

contested

24h volume

$4K

modest

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

23 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

Above 1 inch92¢Above 2 inches73¢Above 3 inches42¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Rain in Chicago in May 2026

4 contracts$4K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Rain in Chicago in May 2026?: Above 2 inches

KXRAINCHIM-26MAY-2

62¢−7pp$2KK→

Rain in Chicago in May 2026?: Above 4 inches

KXRAINCHIM-26MAY-4

15¢−1pp$463K→

Rain in Chicago in May 2026?: Above 3 inches

KXRAINCHIM-26MAY-3

39¢−3pp$451K→

Rain in Chicago in May 2026?: Above 1 inch

KXRAINCHIM-26MAY-1

90¢+2pp$395K→

What moved the line

May 2Above 1 inch↑25pp73→98¢ · Kalshi
May 3Above 2 inches↑22pp66→88¢ · Kalshi
May 3Above 3 inches↓15pp68→53¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 3 inches↑13pp55→68¢ · Kalshi
May 2Above 4 inches↑9pp31→40¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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