Rain in Seattle in Apr 2026
Leader sits at 18% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2 inches
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
Above 6 inches
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
8 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Rain in Seattle in Jun 2026
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Seattle will receive more than 2 inches of rain during April 2026. The 35% reading suggests below-average rainfall expectations for that month. Seattle's April precipitation is shaped primarily by atmospheric river frequency and the transition between spring and early summer weather patterns. Historical April averages for Seattle range around 3.7 inches, so this contract pricing implies markets are discounting the likelihood of above-normal rainfall. The resolution will be determined by actual precipitation measurements from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport or equivalent official sources at the end of April. Key drivers include the strength of Pacific storm systems in spring, sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific, and broader climate patterns that influence seasonal moisture delivery to the Pacific Northwest.
- ›Historical April precipitation in Seattle averages 3.7 inches; markets pricing 35% for >2 inches suggests expected conditions below historical norms
- ›Sea surface temperature patterns in the North Pacific during winter-spring months influence spring storm frequency and intensity reaching the Pacific Northwest
- ›The El Niño/La Niña phase heading into spring 2026 typically correlates with precipitation deviations from normal in the Pacific Northwest
- ›April sits at the transition between wet season decline and drier summer conditions; storm track positioning determines whether systems reach Seattle
- ›Official precipitation measurements will be reconciled against NOAA or National Weather Service data for the Seattle-Tacoma region to determine contract settlement
What moved the line
- Jun 20Above 2 inches↑11pp17→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Above 2 inches↓10pp15→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Above 2 inches↓8pp32→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Above 2 inches↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Above 2 inches↓6pp24→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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