Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$905
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
192 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 2
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 3
Will Elon Musk be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 4
Will Savannah Guthrie be in the 1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Cluster 5
Will Bad Bunny be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global – People
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% probability that Taylor Swift will rank as the most-searched person globally on Google's 2026 Year in Search list. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether her cultural prominence will exceed that of other major public figures over the full year. Key factors include her ongoing musical and personal visibility, the volume of search activity she generates relative to other celebrities, and major life events that could influence public interest. The resolution depends entirely on Google's final rankings published in December 2026, making this sensitive to unpredictable shifts in celebrity news cycles and public attention over the remaining seven months of the year.
- ›Taylor Swift's current Spotify chart performance (56% probability of #1 on US daily chart in May 2026 suggests strong streaming engagement but doesn't directly predict annual search rankings)
- ›Comparison baseline: Donald Trump contracts at 18¢, indicating markets assess him as ~2x more likely than Swift for top-searched person status
- ›Historical volatility in Year in Search people rankings depends on unexpected events, scandals, and cultural moments rather than sustained baseline popularity
- ›Resolution occurs December 2026 when Google publishes official Year in Search results—no interim data points or alternative metrics will settle this
- ›Current 11% probability implies markets see Swift as a secondary contender despite significant cultural presence, suggesting concentrated search volume among fewer mega-celebrities drives rankings
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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