Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 59% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
59%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 25% of their title tokens — “Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass” vs “Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass
Will Nevada Question 6 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in Nevada pass?: Nevada Question 6
KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-NV
Cluster 2
Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass
Will the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment in Virginia pass?: Virginia HJR 1
KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-VA
Cluster 3
Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass
Will Missouri Amendment 3 in Missouri pass?: Missouri Amendment 3
KXREPRODUCTIVEMEASURES-26-MO
Analysis
Nevada Question 6 is a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion access rights in the state constitution. At 59% probability, the prediction indicates near-even odds that the measure will receive sufficient voter support to pass. Abortion rights initiatives have shown strong performance in recent ballot measures across various states, though Nevada's specific political composition and voter enthusiasm relative to this cycle will determine outcomes. The probability reflects uncertainty around voter turnout patterns, demographic shifts since the last election, and how abortion access resonates as a voting issue in 2026 compared to recent cycles. The November 2026 general election will definitively resolve this measure, with results dependent on actual votes cast rather than polling alone.
- ›Recent abortion-related ballot measures in other states have passed at higher rates than historical ballot initiatives, suggesting voter appetite for abortion rights protections
- ›Nevada's current voter registration trends and expected 2026 turnout composition compared to 2024 will significantly impact passage odds
- ›Polling data on Nevada voter support for constitutional abortion rights amendments, if available, versus the current 59% market probability
- ›Republican gubernatorial and legislative performance in Nevada could influence voter mood and turnout patterns affecting down-ballot measures
- ›The measure's specific language and any official fiscal or implementation details that shape voter perception of the initiative
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.