Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 15000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026
Leader sits at 34% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 13000
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Above 13500
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$55
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 3, 2026
118 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 1
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 13000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 13000
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-13000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 13500 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 13500
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-13500
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 17000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 17000
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-17000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 16500 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 16500
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-16500
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 16000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 16000
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-16000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 15500 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 15500
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-15500
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 15000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 15000
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-15000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 14500 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 14500
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-14500
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 14000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026?: Above 14000
KXRIVN-26AUGDELIV-14000
Analysis
This market estimates a 15% chance that Rivian will deliver more than 15,000 vehicles in Q2 2026. The low probability reflects Rivian's production challenges and current delivery volumes, which have historically fallen short of targets. Two main factors drive this level: first, whether Rivian can maintain or accelerate its production rate from prior quarters, and second, whether supply chain or manufacturing constraints continue to limit output. The resolution hinges on Rivian's Q2 earnings report, expected in August 2026, which will provide verified delivery numbers. This outcome would represent significant production growth from recent performance and would suggest the company has overcome prior operational bottlenecks. Market participants are pricing in skepticism about near-term acceleration, though any production ramp-up announcements could shift expectations before the quarter closes.
- ›Rivian's Q1 2026 delivery volumes and trend trajectory compared to Q2 targets
- ›Manufacturing capacity utilization at Rivian's Illinois and Georgia plants during Q2
- ›Supply chain stability for semiconductors and battery components during the April-June period
- ›Pre-orders and consumer demand signals heading into Q2 that would justify sustained production rates
- ›Any production halt announcements, recall-related shutdowns, or revised guidance from Rivian before August 2026
What moved the line
- May 6Above 13000↑19pp13→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 13500↑17pp9→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 14000↑12pp7→19¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 14500↑11pp4→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Above 15000↑8pp2→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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