Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026
Leader sits at 95% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 42000
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 42000
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
646 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 40000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 40000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-40000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 50000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 50000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-50000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 52000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 52000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-52000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 48000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 48000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-48000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 46000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 46000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-46000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 44000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 44000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-44000
Will Rivian Automotive Inc. report Above 42000 total vehicles delivered in 2026?: Above 42000
KXRIVNA-28JANDELIV-42000
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 88% probability that Rivian will deliver more than 46,000 vehicles in 2026. This sits midway through the range of outcomes traders are betting on, reflecting confidence in Rivian's production scale while acknowledging execution risk. The probability is driven by recent production ramp-up data and capacity expansion, but tempered by supply chain vulnerabilities and the company's history of missing delivery targets. The key uncertainty centers on sustained factory output through Q4 2026, when year-end demand typically peaks. Final 2026 delivery figures will be reported by Rivian in early 2027, settling all related contracts simultaneously.
- ›Rivian's actual quarterly production run-rate in mid-2026 and capacity utilization rates at existing facilities
- ›Supply chain stability for batteries, semiconductors, and other critical components through the remainder of 2026
- ›Company guidance updates and management commentary on full-year delivery expectations during earnings calls
- ›Historical variance between Rivian's stated production targets and reported actual deliveries
- ›Competitive and macroeconomic conditions affecting luxury electric vehicle demand in 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 24Above 48000↑45pp38→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Above 50000↑34pp47→81¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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