Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 74% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 57%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Florida
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
57¢
Arizona
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$28
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 31, 2027
217 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Arizona before Jan 1, 2027?: Arizona
KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-AZ
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Nevada before Jan 1, 2027?: Nevada
KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-NV
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Georgia before Jan 1, 2027?: Georgia
KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-GA
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in Florida before Jan 1, 2027?: Florida
KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-FL
Will Tesla robotaxi be offered to the general public in California before Jan 1, 2027?: California
KXROBOTAXIAREA-26DEC-CA
Analysis
This market estimates a 51% chance that Tesla will offer robotaxi service to the general public in Arizona before January 1, 2027—roughly seven months away. Among five state outcomes, Georgia currently leads at 51%, while Arizona sits at 30%, reflecting differences in regulatory environment, Tesla's deployment strategy, and stated timelines. The probability is shaped primarily by Tesla's actual progress on robotaxi technology and regulatory approvals, which vary significantly by state. Georgia ranks highest, followed by Florida at 48%, suggesting markets expect service launches in select states but not uniformly. The biggest near-term catalyst is Tesla's announcements about expansion timelines and any actual launches in competing states, which would clarify the company's rollout sequencing and regulatory feasibility. Zero trading volume across these contracts suggests limited recent conviction changes.
- ›Tesla has not yet launched general public robotaxi service in any U.S. state as of May 2026, establishing the baseline challenge
- ›Arizona's regulatory framework, insurance requirements, and Tesla's operational readiness in the state will determine if seven months allows for public deployment
- ›Georgia's 51% probability (highest among five states) indicates markets view it as the most likely launch location, which could influence Tesla's resource allocation across states
- ›Tesla's historical timelines for autonomous vehicle rollouts have frequently extended beyond initial public statements, creating skepticism about aggressive 2026 deadlines
- ›Regulatory approval speed varies by state; Georgia may have different approval requirements or Tesla relationships compared to Arizona
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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